Brent strengthens above $101. US says Iran must “sign deal, or it won’t exist longer”

In the news, France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Ireland and the European Commission agreed at an emergency meeting on 01 Oct to respond with "one voice" against growing pressure from Washington to release reserves of diesel. This comes amid US Energy Secretary Chris Wright asking for oil releases as an alternative to imposing a US diesel exports ban on the EU. In other news, US President Donald Trump said that ramped-up bombing of Iran was "possible" after the midterms. President Trump also reportedly stated that "either Iran signs an agreement or it will cease to exist." US exports of propane increased to 2mb/d in 1H 2026 for the first time, 11% up y/y. This notably shot up to a record high of 2.1mb/d in April 2026. India, meanwhile, will ask private fuel retailers to stop rationing sales, as per Oil Secretary Neeraj Mittal, who added, "Nobody is allowed to cap fuel sales. We will tell them it is not acceptable." Indian private refiners Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy have restricted diesel and gasoline sales at their service stations to limit losses from selling the fuels at below market rates. Coal-fired electricity generation overtook gas-fired generation for the first time this summer, as per data from global energy think tank Ember, marking an important shift for a nation where gas has previously accounted for over 90% of electricity supplies. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.72/bbl and $13.59/bbl, respectively.

Turbo bid this afternoon in Dated Brent, with Oct'26 DFL lifted up to highs of $14.00/bbl and Nov'26 DFL up to $5.48/bbl. Pre-window, we saw strong DFL buying and strong roll buying with 1-15 Oct'26 vs 16-30 Oct'26 trading up to $11.65/bbl and 26-30 Oct/Cal Nov'26 up to $3.70/bbl. In the physical window, we saw a trade bidding 2 Midland cargoes with no offers, pushing the implied physical diff up to around $16.00/bbl. In the paper window, we saw a trade stopping out and lifting 5-9 Oct'26 CFD aggressively up to $20.95/bbl before a market maker lifted up to $21.05/bbl. We also saw buying of 12-16 Oct'26 CFD from trades and a major up to $14.02/bbl, and 19-23 Oct'26 CFD up to $8.20/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai, we traded range-bound. There was no flow in Brent/Dubai, except some bank buying of Q1'27 Brent/Dubai, and some trade house buying of Nov'26 Brent/Dubai around -$1.60/bbl. We traded range-bound between -$1.90/bbl to -$1.60/bbl. All day, the flow was buy-side in Brent/Dubai boxes, trade and major buying Nov/Dec'26, Dec/Jan'27 and Jan/Feb'27 box, around -$0.90/bbl, -$0.29/bbl and -$0.10/bbl respectively. Despite this buying, the Dubai spreads were strong on screen, and the boxes hardly rallied. The Oct/Nov'26 Dubai spread continued to grind higher, up from $3.50/bbl to $3.75/bbl.

VLSFO: After a strong morning, Sing 0.5% weakened slightly this afternoon. Nov/Dec'26 weakened from $37.75/mt to $36.00/mt in the early afternoon; it then became a bit choppy, trading between $36.00/mt and $37.00/mt. Oct/Nov'26 and Dec/Jan'27 saw little volume traded this afternoon; they traded at $40.00/mt and $26.00/mt, respectively. Nov'26 Sing crack traded around $22.25/bbl for the majority of the afternoon until the window, when it sold down to $21.95/bbl. Euro 0.5% was relatively thin again this afternoon; Nov/Dec'26 traded at $13.00/mt in the lead-up to the window and did not trade in the window. Oct/Nov'26 similarly did not trade in the window but was consistently trading at $11.50/mt pre-window. Euro cracks saw better volume; Nov'26 crack traded at $0.50/bbl until the window, when sell-side pressure pushed it down to $0.10/bbl; it bounced back up to $0.25/bbl post-window.

HSFO: 380 also thinned out this Afternoon after a busy morning; spreads were relatively stable, Oct/Nov'26 trading at $50.50/mt for the afternoon it briefly traded up to $51.00/mt in the window; Nov/Dec'26 traded between $34.75/mt and $35.50/mt with no real axe. 380 cracks weakened this afternoon; Nov'26 traded down from $1.15/bbl to $0.40/bbl in very low volume. Barge complex also thinned out this afternoon; spreads saw little price action, with Oct/Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 both trading between $15.50/mt and $16.00/mt. Barge cracks weakened this afternoon; the Nov'26 crack was offered down on screen from -$10.50/bbl to -$11.60/bbl, while the Oct'26 crack traded down from -$11.40/bbl to -$12.35/bbl; therefore, 380 E/W was implied higher and traded up 4 dollars to $76.50/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were quiet, with some selling seen in Nov/Dec'26 from $6.75/bbl down to $6.70/bbl. Front E/W saw buying initially, trading from -$95.00/mt up to -$90.50/mt, then back to -$92.00/mt last, while Dec'26 saw selling from -$84.00/bbl down to -$86.50/bbl. Regrade remained well supported down the curve, with Nov'26 lifted to $2.25/bbl, and Q4'27 up to $2.75/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed into the window, Nov/Dec'26 trading from lows of $57.50/mt up to $60.00/mt, while Dec'26 cracks firmed to $78.00/bbl. European jet diffs rallied in the front, with Nov'26 reaching $140/mt.

Choppy start to the afternoon in gasoline before cracks found a bid from the US open, with RBBRs leading the way. Nov'26 RBBRs dipped to lows of $32.36/bbl early afternoon before grinding higher from the US open to $34.43/bbl at the end of the window, lifting the Nov'26 arb from lows of -0.30c/gal to 0.80c/gal. EBOB followed, with Nov'26 cracks bouncing off $32.48/bbl to $34.05/bbl trading at the end of the window despite Nov'26 EBOB MOC being very well offered in the window, and Nov/Dec'26 firming from $79.25/mt to $81.50/mt. Further out, we saw some selling in the Q1'27 arb at 23.8/gal and 23.6/gal, with sell-side interest in the Q1'27 crack at $24.00/bbl and $24.05/bbl. In the East, Nov'26 E/W weakened from -$3.50/bbl to -$4.50/bbl on the back of EBOB strength, while 92 cracks were valued at $29.60/bbl at the end of the window.

This afternoon, NWE naphtha was mixed and relatively illiquid, with MOC balanced, backend cracks better bid and Brent pushing spreads slightly higher as crack rolls softened. NWE naphtha was volatile but broadly steady versus the morning, with Nov'26 cracks falling to -$5.50/bbl before recovering to -$4.90/bbl and ending at -$5.10/bbl; Q1'27 was at -$6.15/bbl, Cal 27’/ Cal 28’ up to -$7.90/bbl and -$9.80/bbl, while the Q1/2 roll fell .10c to $1.75/bbl. Spreads firmed post-window, with Oct/Nov'26 and Nov/Dec'26 both at $29.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $17.25/mt. E/W stayed supported in the front, with Nov'26 at $68.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 at $3.00/mt and Jan/Feb'27 at $6.00/mt, while Q1'27 fell to $48.25/mt. MOPJ was better bid versus NWE after the early sell-off, with Dec'26 cracks moving from $1.50/bbl to $1.60/bbl and Q2'27 bid from -$3.80/bbl to -$3.65/bbl pre-window; post-window, Nov'26 was up to $2.50/bbl, while Nov/Dec'26 and Nov/Jan'27 spreads finished at $33.00/mt and $60.00/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, Nov'26 FEI continued to rally from $842.00/mt pre-window to $852.00/mt post, trading at $849.00/mt on screen. This drove Oct'26 FEI/CP even higher, trading at $203.00/mt this afternoon, up from printing $196.00/mt pre-window. Front of curve FEI buying also drove Dec/Dec'26 spreads even higher this afternoon, trading at $203.00/mt up from around $195.00/mt pre-window. As a result, LST/FEI fell during the window, with Nov'26 LST/FEI trading at -$381.00/mt down from -$375.00/mt pre-window. Cal27 stayed flat this afternoon, trading at -$228.00/mt and -$229.00/mt, the same levels as the morning window.

In the US, the front of the LST curve flattened with Nov/Dec'26 LST falling from 1.50c/gal to 0.75c/gal. There was also trade house interest in Q2/Q3'27 LST spreads trading at 1.50c/gal.
The EPC/NWE arb weakened this afternoon, opening at -$218.00/mt before trading down to -$221.00/mt. This was off the back of a strong NWE flat price which opened around $677.00/mt, trading at a peak of $684.00/mt.

In Butane, Nov'26 C4 ENT opened very strong, trading at highs of $1.38625/gal versus printing around $1.36/gal pre-window. This strength drove further steepening out of winter, with the Q1/Q2'27 spread trading at 21.00c/gal, up from printing 20.00c/gal yesterday.