Brent Strengthens, First Cargo of Venezuelan Crude Lands in Texas

In the news, the first cargo of Venezuelan crude under the US-NABEP deal was unloaded in Texas and will be sold by the US government to refineries run by Exxon Mobil and Venezuelan-owned Citgo Petroleum, a White House official said. NABEP confirmed it supplied 1mb of Venezuelan oil under the arrangement. The White House official said the government received the oil "at no cost," while Trump described it as a gift earlier in the day. Elsewhere, airlines are increasingly reluctant to lock in future costs through new hedges, warning instead of steep fare increases to cover higher fuel bills. In other news, the Philippines is negotiating with Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US to store oil in the country, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin has told Reuters, as it seeks to hedge against fuel price spikes from the Iran war. Manila is also in talks with Japan, Kuwait, the UAE, and Australia on storage as it builds stockpiles. Because the country imports nearly all its energy, Garin said it also plans to raise diesel and gas-fired power output to offset an estimated 60% drop in hydropower and 20% fall in solar output in the first half of 2027 due to El Nino. Finally, the Jan/Feb’27 and Jan/Jul’27 Brent futures spreads are at $3.78/bbl and $16.54/bbl, respectively.

Choppy afternoon, with the prompt holding well below last night’s levels: November bounced into the window and gave it back once it closed. Nov DFL firmed from $5.50/bbl to $6.10/bbl with 500 lots through at $6.00/bbl, $6.05/bbl at the end of the window, and is back at $5.50/bbl, about $1.50 under last night’s close. Dec DFL followed from a $5.80/bbl low to $6.04/bbl before easing back to $5.80/bbl, while real buying lifted Nov/Dec DFL from -$0.50/bbl to $0.05/bbl at the end of the window, last -$0.30/bbl. Nov/Dec Dated firmed from $3.50/bbl to $3.85/bbl into the window, still around 90c under last night’s close, and Jan DFL was paid up from $4.20/bbl to $4.29/bbl.

In the physical window, a Producer offered Midland aggressively in the back of the curve, and a Major offered Oseberg across it.

The days market saw some 30 Nov-04 Dec v Dec traded at $2.75/bbl in 3,300 lots pre-window, touching $2.80/bbl, 03-09 Dec v Dec was bought at $2.00/bbl in size and 02-06 Nov v Nov bid up from -$0.35/bbl to -$0.20/bbl. Also saw 23-27 Nov v 30 Nov-11 Dec going at $1.60/bbl and Nov v 18-24 Nov sold at -$0.50/bbl post window.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads remained well offered, with Nov/Dec hit from $2.30/bbl down to $2.10/bbl. E/W also saw weakness in the prompt, Nov trading from -$137/mt down to -$142.50/mt. Deferred regrade selling also stepped down, Q2 trading down to $1.55/bbl and Q4 down to $2/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed throughout, with Dec/Jan from $57.50/mt up to $61.75/mt, while Dec cracks firmed to $74/bbl. European jet diffs were stable, with Nov trading at $105/mt and Q3'27 around $125/mt.

This afternoon in gasoline we saw a large RBBR sell off post-stats before they climbed back up into close. Arbs were mixed , with Nov'26 trading at 8.30c/gal end window, with better selling in March and Q2. EBOB cracks were traded between $14.70/bbl and $15.00/bbl, with Q3 offered at $22.80/bbl. Nov/Dec was also balanced, trading at $34/mt end window, with spreads generally seeing better sellside interest in Q1. E/W was mixed, trading down to $1.80/bbl before recovering to $2.25/bbl with spreads seeing better sellside interest down to $4.35/bbl in Nov/Dec.

Naphtha MOC balanced this afternoon with better crack buying in the window up to -$4.55/bbl. Nov/Dec was better bid trading up to $44.25/mt and Dec/Dec'27 selling continued in the afternoon, putting pressure on Cal'27 crack rolls, which eased lower. E/W was balanced in Nov trading around $72/mt and Q1 E/W was valued at $57.50/mt. MOPJ spreads were better bid with Dec/Jan'27 buying from a real player up to $36.50/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI structure was slightly stronger. Nov/Dec'26 FEI rallied to $56.00/mt up from $54.00/mt traded at midday. Dec/Jan'27 traded at $48.00/mt during the European window up from $46.00/mt to close the morning window.

The Arb was weaker this afternoon with Nov'26 LST/FEI trading at $-$394.00/mt to close the European window. This was down from -$384.00/mt in the US window and -$375.00/mt seen around midday. Dec'26 LST/FEI saw fund buying at -$342 after opening around -$340.00/mt. Trading was choppy trading down to -$348.00/mt before recovering to -$345.00/mt.

LST structure was firm this afternoon with Nov/Dec'26 LST trading at 1.25c/gal throughout the afternoon briefly touching 1.375c/gal. Q1/Q2'27 LST traded down slightly opening around 14.875c/gal before softening to 14.75c/gal. Q1'27 LST/FEI traded at -$273.00/mt after the US window before falling to -$276.00/mt by the European close.

There was a lot of Cal'27 LST selling from banks and US midstreams today with market maker buying at 100.00c/gal.

The European arb was also weaker today. There was trade buying of LST/NWE at -$194.00/mt before printing -$197.00/mt by the close mainly as a function of stronger NWE flat price.

Butane structure doesn’t stop rallying with Nov/Dec'26 Butane trading 11.25c/gal rallying up from 10.25c/gal around midday. Dec/Jan'27 Butane traded up to 10.50c/gal up from 10.25c/gal. Q1/Q2'27 Butane traded at 31.75c/gal and 32.00c/gal.

There was also real buying of the Dec/Jan'27 C4/MOPJ again today at $-$135.00/mt. Butane continued to strengthen against LST with C4/C3 printing 68.25c/gal by the European close. This is up from 64.00c/gal yesterday.