Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
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Jan Brent under $111 on Iran draft deal claims
Jan Brent near $111 on new Iran draft deal claims and Israeli election uncertainty
Published: October 28, 2026
Written by:
Mita Chaturvedi
Jan’27 Brent futures rose to a daily high of $111.77/bbl at 07.52 GMT and saw a low of $110.62/bbl at 09.46 GMT, supported at $110.98/bbl at 09.55 GMT (time of writing).
Brent Futures Flat Price
In the news, Reuters reported that Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday, with Iran considering the proposal and a response expected by the end of the week. Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, overnight, igniting a fire at its ammonia production unit, and also hit the Novolipetsk Steel Plant in Lipetsk. The US has told several Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense military campaign against Iran after next week’s midterms, the Wall Street Journal reported, saying Trump hasn’t decided but is leaning towards a large post-election attack. The Houthis said on Tuesday they had attacked Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, its largest, with a ballistic missile, though Saudi authorities have not confirmed any damage. Iranian state media also claimed an oil tanker caught fire after hitting mines in the eastern Strait of Hormuz on a route Tehran hadn’t authorised, though no maritime authority has confirmed it and US Central Command says the main lanes are clear of Iranian mines. In Israel, with more than 4 million votes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to get 54 seats, with 47 for the opposition and 19 for the Arab parties, and Yisrael Beytenu clearing the threshold with seven seats. A unity government looks unlikely, as Eisenkot has refused to serve under Netanyahu, even in a rotation. In gas, QatarEnergy has told Italy’s Edison it is extending force majeure on supplies to the Adriatic LNG terminal until the end of December. Asia’s LNG imports are set to hit a three-month high in October, led by China, according to Kpler data, even as Chinese state firms resell contracted US cargoes into Europe. Finally, the Jan/Feb’27 and Jan/Jul’27 Brent futures spreads are at $3.91/bbl and $15.86/bbl, respectively.
Crude Oil
Volatile morning, with the Dated complex extending yesterday’s sell-off and the weakness concentrated in the prompt. Nov'26 DFL came off from $7.00/bbl to $5.80/bbl despite buying, 1.20 under last night’s close, with 300 lots going through at $6.40/bbl on the way down. Dec'26 DFL followed from $6.15/bbl to $5.78/bbl, with 600 lots at $5.95/bbl, 500 at $6.00/bbl and selling at $5.90/bbl, around 30c under last night. That took Nov/Dec'26 DFL negative, trading from $0.40/bbl down to -$0.10/bbl in size and -$0.18/bbl last, against 0.73 last night. Nov'26 Dated traded 117.79 (6.81 in DFL terms), and Nov/Dec'26 Dated saw selling at $4.01/bbl and $4.00/bbl, roughly 75c under last night’s close. Dec/Jan'27 DFL traded 1.90, around 20c lower. Jan'27 DFL held up better, trading 4.18-4.28 around last night’s 4.16 after an early 4.52 block, and further out Q1'27 DFL traded 3.64 in 370 lots, around 12c higher. On the Dubai side, Jan'27 Dated/Dubai was bid from $2.75/bbl to $2.85/bbl in size.
In the days market, 05-06 v 12-13 Nov'26 went through at -$0.40/bbl, as did 02-06 v 09-13 Nov'26, 09-13 Nov'26 v 30 Nov'26-04 Dec'26 traded 1.40, and $09.00/bbl-13 v 16-20 Nov'26 eased from $0.20/bbl to flat in size.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Fuel Oil
Sing 0.5 saw real buying this morning and strengthened considerably while there was little spoken of Euro 0.5. Nov/Dec'26 Sing traded up from $37.00/mt to $40.00/mt by window start, it then sold down to $39.50/mt during the window before rebounding to $40.00/mt post window, Dec/Jan'27 has traded $2.50/mt higher to $40.00/mt. Nov'26 Sing crack opened 30c higher at $28.75/bbl, it was then bid up to $29.40/bbl before aggressively selling off to $28.70/bbl at the start of the window, it has since rallied back to $29.40/bbl, Nov'26 0.5 E/W has been implied $5 higher at $190.50/mt. Euro 0.5 liquidity has been extremely low this morning, Nov/Dec'26 has traded once at $15.25/mt and Nov'26 crack has traded at -$1.00/bbl in low volume.
380 structure was also better bid this morning, Nov/Dec'26 opened $1.25/mt higher at $59.25/mt, it briefly sold down to $58.00/mt before getting bid back up to $59.00/mt in the window and rallying further to $60.00/mt post window, Dec/Jan'27 opened a dollar higher at $43.00/mt and continued to rally to $44.00/mt. Nov'26 380 crack was bid up from $11.00/bbl to $11.60/bbl pre window, it traded up to $11.80/bbl in the window, Nov'26 380 E/W is yet to trade but is implied around $7.00/mt dollars higher at $128.25/mt. Barge complex remained thin this morning, Nov/Dec'26 and Dec/Jan'27 traded at $27.50/mt and $26.00/mt respectively while Nov'26 Barge crack has traded at -$8.40/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Distillates
This mornio $75.5/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Gasoline
This morning, gasoline was weak. 92 opened well offered; the Nov/Dec spread traded lower from yesterday's $6.50/bbl to a low of $4.90/bbl this morning, before recovering slightly to $5.10/bbl during the window. Cracks sold off from $18.50/bbl to $18/bbl in Nov, and E/W weakened from $3.50/bbl to$ 2.90/bbl. EBOB continued to see better sell-side interest, with Nov cracks coming off from $16.25/bbl to $15.10/bbl and Nov/Dec was offered down from $34/mt to $32.25/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Naphtha
This morning in naphtha, MOPJ MOC was better bid with Nov MOC trading +5c. There was thin liquidity with Nov/Dec MOPJ getting hit from $40/mt to $38.50/mt, and Nov MOPJ cracks got hit $3/bbl end window. E/W was softer in general with Nov having closed at $72/mt and getting hit down to $68/mt post-window in the front before recovering slightly with some smalls MOPJ outright buying in the front. In Europe, Nov/Dec crack roll was valued $0.50/bbl and cracks traded -$4.80/bbl in the window with backend quiet but Cal selling around -$7.90/bbl.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
NGLs
This morning in NGLs, FEI was well bid during the DCE window with flat price bid across the curve out to May'27. However, after DCE momentum died down, FEI structure softened. Nov/Dec'26 FEI opened around $57.00/mt before falling to $54.00/mt to close the Sing window and trading $53.00/mt post window. Q1/Q2'27 FEI traded at highs of $139.00/mt this morning before falling back to $135.00/mt. There was some fund selling of spreads and buying of the Nov/Dec'26/Jan'27 fly at -$3.50/mt.
FEI/MOPJs were fairly illiquid this morning but there was some trading of the Nov/Dec'26 FEI MOPJ box which traded at $15.00/mt and then $14.00/mt. FEI/CP was firm throughout the morning as CP was bid. Dec'26 FEI/CP traded at $203.00/mt and Jan'27 FEI/CP traded at $177.00/mt and $176.00/mt. CP Spreads were slightly stronger with Nov/Dec'26 trading at $3.00/mt up from printing $-$2.00/mt yesterday. Q1/Q2'27 CP also traded at $87.50/mt. There was also some South East Asian NOC selling of the Nov'26 CP/MOPJ at -$253.00/mt.
The Arb was firm this morning as FEI was choppy. Q1'27 LST/FEI traded at -$268.00/mt before rising to -$266.00/mt. Dec'26 LST/FEI traded at -$340.00/mt before printing -$332.00/mt to close. On screen, Nov'26 FEI was trading $1024.00/mt to close.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Morning Macro
AI stocks ripped higher for a second straight day after Anthropic's IPO filing, pulling the S&P 500 within 1.2% of its all-time high. The Philly semiconductor index jumped 3.6%.
$AMD rose 5.5%, $AVGO climbed more than 4% on a $63B chip financing deal for Anthropic. AI infrastructure names surged, with $NBIS up 11% and $CRWV up nearly 8%. $NVDA also announced a $3B investment in $META.
The most hated trades are suddenly getting interesting. Semis are bouncing. Gold shorts are stretched. France is trading at a record discount. Silver is at Covid-level extremes. Gold rose 1.1% to $4,060m, make or break above key support.
Germany, where Mercedes is also being hit hard by the China shock. It joins BMW & VW in cutting its outlook, now targeting a car margin of just 2–3%, vs up to 5% before. Shares tumble 5.4%, taking this year’s loss to more than a third. Germany’s Big Three are now worth just €106bn combined. Tesla alone is worth €1.4tn, more than 13 times as much.
Silver at key support, make or break, with market positioning extreme shorts.
UK 2-year yields back to cycle highs.
The 3-month correlation between Apple, and the Nasdaq 100 is down to -0.12, turning negative for the first time on record in data going back to the early 1980s.
Boeing stock falls over -10% after posting a net loss in Q3 2026 and lowering guidance.
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