Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Strengthens to $64.12/bbl
Kurdish forces exit key Syrian provinces. NIS secures crude via waiver; China backs Rio-Glencore; Denmark boosts Arctic forces
The Mar’26 Brent futures contract strengthened this afternoon, rising from $62.63/bbl at 12:30 GMT to $64.12/bbl at 16:45 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, Kurdish forces have withdrawn from the provinces of Raqqa and Deir al-Zor after an unexpected ceasefire deal between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. The latter province is home to the al-Omar oilfield, the largest oilfield in Syria which once produced 50kb/d prior to the outbreak of Syria’s war. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that the deal would enable Syrian state institutions to regain control over al-Hasakah, Deir al-Zor, and Raqqa, three northern and eastern governorates that were previously controlled by Kurdish-led forces. Youssef Qeblawi, head of the Syrian Petroleum Company, stated that Shell has requested to withdraw from the al-Omar oilfield and transfer its share to Syria's state-owned operators; he also claimed that US companies remain interested in Syria's energy sector and that a financial settlement is currently underway. Elsewhere, Russian-owned NIS announced that it has secured sufficient crude supplies to operate its refinery through February, following the restart of imports under its new US sanctions waiver. In China, the Aluminum Corporation of China, a significant shareholder in Rio Tinto, is reportedly prepared to back the mining company's possible acquisition of Glencore, as it would provide the Chinese entity with greater access to copper resources. In other geopolitical news, Denmark is deploying a significant portion of its Armed Forces to the Arctic in response to US President Donald Trump’s threats of takeover and tariffs. When asked whether he would use military force to seize Greenland, Trump responded with “no comment.” Finally, at the time of writing, the front month (Mar/Apr) and 6-month (Mar/Sep) Brent futures spreads are at $0.73/bbl and $1.91/bbl, respectively.
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