Brent Stronger as Ryzan Refinery Halts CDU-6

In the news, Russia's Ryazan oil refinery has halted one of its primary crude distillation units, CDU-6, following a Ukrainian drone attack, as per Reuters sources. Regional governor Pavel Malkov said the large-scale attack sparked a fire at the refinery and damaged several pipelines. CDU-6 had already been suspended after another attack last month. The refinery's three other primary units (CDU-1, CDU-3, and CDU-4) remain operational. Elsewhere, Iran has exported some LPG and jet fuel since July despite the US naval blockade. As per Reuters, Tehran has in recent weeks been concealing cargoes among a growing volume of ship-to-ship transfers by other Gulf producers off Oman. Some Iranian LPG tankers transferred cargoes near the Omani coastal towns of Shinas and Sohar, while others waited in the Gulf of Oman before slipping past the blockade, which US Central Command says sits across the Gulf of Oman near the Iran-Pakistan border. The total volume of these LPG cargoes is estimated at 4.1mb. In other news, VLCC freight rates fell this week from record highs, as demand eased following a wave of attacks on Middle East vessels and the US weighed easing sanctions on the shadow fleet. Gulf of Oman-to-China rates dropped to about 776 on the Worldscale basis. Despite the drop, rates remain close to record highs. In India, diesel consumption is rising, driven by increased truck movement during the festival season and government efforts to shield motorists from higher global prices. State-run fuel retailers sold 3.65Mmt of diesel in the first half of October, up roughly 26.4% from the same period in September and 25.4% from a year earlier. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Dec/Jan’27) and 6-month (Dec/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at $2.82/bbl and $12.83/bbl, respectively.

The Dated complex was choppy this afternoon, with prompt DFL sold into the window before rebounding after it. Nov DFL eased from $4.60/bbl to $3.80/bbl at the end of the window, then recovered to $4.60/bbl. Dec DFL followed the same pattern, falling from $3.93/bbl to $3.45/bbl and recovering to $4.05/bbl. Nov/Dec DFL was sold down from $0.75/bbl to $0.30/bbl, then traded at $0.55/bbl post-window. Jan DFL was sold at $2.75/bbl.On the physical side, 3 Midland cargoes were offered through by Majors and a trade house, across the whole curve. In the days market, 29 Oct-04 Nov v 09-13 Nov was bought by real players at $1.10/bbl, 19-23 v 26-30 Oct came off from $3.00/bbl to $2.30/bbl, and 02-13 v 16-30 Nov was bought at $1.75/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai, we traded higher early on before settling into a tight range. The Nov'26 Brent/Dubai moved up from -$1.67/bbl to -$1.32/bbl in the first hour or so, then traded range-bound between -$1.48/bbl to -$1.36/bbl, finishing around -$1.42/bbl. There was repeated buying of Nov'26 Dubai vs Feb'27 ICE cross-month in size by major, while later there was selling of Dec'26 Dubai vs Jan'27 ICE cross-month by refiner. The Dubai spreads traded in line with Brent spreads, the Nov/Dec'26 Dubai spread drifting lower from $2.96/bbl to $2.75/bbl, with selling around $2.74/bbl, before bouncing late to $3.03/bbl. The Nov/Dec'26 box traded between -$0.34/bbl and -$0.14/bbl, finishing at -$0.17/bbl, with the Dec/Jan'27 box quiet around -$0.05/bbl.

Liquidity remained very thin this afternoon, as Sing 0.5 continued to strengthen into the afternoon, while Euro spreads came off and cracks were relatively stable. Nov/Dec'26 Sing traded up 3 dollars in the early afternoon to $33.50/mt, it traded between $33.00/mt and $33.75/mt in the window, Dec/Jan'27 traded up from $29.50/mt to $31.50/mt in low volume. Nov'26 Sing crack traded up on screen from $26.35/bbl to $26.70/bbl pre-window, it continued to rally in the window trading up to $27.00/bbl. Euro spreads remained very illiquid this afternoon, Nov/Dec'26 traded down from $17.00/mt to $15.25/mt in tiny size while Dec/Jan'27 did not trade. Nov'26 Euro crack saw better volume, it ultimately traded down from $2.50/bbl to $2.00/bbl.

380 complex saw better volume, after a very strong morning 380 spreads and cracks traded consistently at these higher levels. Nov/Dec'26 380 traded between $58.00/mt and $60.00/mt over the course of the afternoon and traded at $58.75/mt in the window, Dec/Jan'27 traded between $41.00/mt and $42.00/mt. Nov'26 380 crack traded up from $13.60/bbl to $14.00/bbl before selling back down to to $13.70/bbl./bbl in the window. Barge spreads remained very illiquid with Nov/Dec'26 trading between $22.50/mt and $22.75/mt, Dec/Jan'27 traded up 75c to $21.25/mt in tiny size. Nov'26 Barge crack was range-bound, trading between -$7.40/bbl and -$7.15/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw some Jun/Dec selling, trading down to $16.10/bbl. E/W was mixed, with buying seen in 1H 2027 at -$81/mt, while Q2 E/W was sell side later on at -$73/mt. Regrade weakened in the front, with Nov trading down to $1.50/bbl, while deferred kero spreads were lifted up to $19.75/bbl in Apr/Oct.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads remained rangebound, with Nov/Dec trading between $43/mt and $45/mt, while Dec cracks sold off to lows of $77.50/bbl before rallying to $80/bbl post-window. European jet diffs weakened overall, with Nov trading from $120/mt down to $115/mt.

This afternoon gasoline was mixed. Arbs generally had better buy-side interest but weakened from 6.50c/gal to 5.50c/gal as RBBRs came off. EBOB cracks were rangebound, with Nov trading around $23.15/bbl end window as MOC saw better buyside interest. Spreads saw better selling again, with Nov/Dec softening from $54/mt to $53.25/mt. E/W remained around -$4.10/bbl with interest in the East very thin, as Nov cracks were valued at $18.90/bbl during the window.

This afternoon in naphtha, MOC was better offered but cracks were better bid in the window, trading up to -$3.95/bbl in Nov. Spreads were balanced with Nov/Dec trading $31.25/mt in the window and Q1 crks valued at -$6/bbl. E/W went a touch better bid in the afternoon in the front trading up to $81/mt with Nov/Dec MOPJ buying at $35/mt.

A quiet Friday in NGLs, FEI structure was firm. Nov/Dec'26 FEI traded at $37.50/mt throughout the afternoon. Q1/Q2'27 FEI traded at $115.00/mt around midday which was slightly up from $114.00/mt this morning.

FEI/CP was slightly stronger as CP was better offered in the prompt month this afternoon. Nov'26 FEI/CP was implied $227.00/mt up from $224.00/mt this morning as Nov/Dec'26 CP printed $17.00/mt and Nov'26 CP traded at $712.00/mt.

FEI/MOPJs were illiquid this afternoon trading at $-$43.00/mt once in the US window before printing around $-$46.00/mt for the rest of the afternoon.

There was some buying of LST/CP trading at -$152.00/mt which was up from -$155.00/mt print earlier this afternoon. LST structure was slightly stronger with Nov/Dec'26 LST trading at 1.625c/gal to close which was higher than 1.50c/gal during the window. Butane continues to rise. Nov/Dec'26 C4/ENT traded at 8.00c/gal up from 7.75c/gal. The C4/C3 also rose to 54.00c/gal in Dec'26 and Nov'26 traded 60.00c/gal up from 58.00c/gal yesterday, reflecting continued relative strength against Propane.