Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
Brent trades within the $68/bbl handle
The Apr'26 Brent futures contract briefly eased below $68/bbl at 03:00 GMT, but climbed from this level to later find more support....
The Apr'26 Brent futures contract briefly eased below $68/bbl at 03:00 GMT, but climbed from this level to later find more support at the low $68/bbl handle. Prices ultimately hit resistance at $68.65/bbl at 09:30 GMT and eased to $68.50/bbl at the time of writing (10:28 GMT).....
Despite the rise in geopolitical risk premium from initial reports that the planned talks between the US and Iran on Friday were on the brink of cancellation, officials from both nations have confirmed the talks will go ahead in Oman this Friday. The agenda for the talks has yet to be settled. Iran is open to discussing its nuclear programme, including uranium enrichment, while the US wants to probe the Islamic Republic on its ballistic missiles, its treatment of its citizens and its support for armed proxy groups such as the Houthis. In other news, Indian Oil Corp. (IOC) has reported an over four-fold jump in Q3'25 profit, supported by strong refinery margins on lower crude. IOC's April-December 2025 gross refining margin rose to $8.41/bbl (prev year: $3.69/bbl). On the other hand, Shell missed Q4'25 profit expectations amid lower oil prices, with a net profit of $3.3 billion (forecast: $3.5 billion). More granularly, profits at Shell's integrated gas and marketing divisions missed expectations while a loss in its chemicals and products units was worse than anticipated. However, the oil major has kept its share buyback programme. Shell has bought back around a quarter of its stock over the past four years, totalling nearly $60 billion ($14 billion in 2025), according to LSEG data. In macro news, German industrial orders rose an unexpected 7.8% in December (Reuters expectation: -2.2% m/m), posting its biggest increase since December 2023. Excluding large-scale contracts, which tend to be unpredictable, new orders climbed 0.9% m/m - which still marks a fourth consecutive rise in new orders sans large orders. Finally, at the time of writing, the Apr/May'26 and Apr/Oct'26 Brent futures time spreads stand at $0.64/bbl and $2.70/bbl, respectively.
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