Brent weakens nearly $2 d/d. Yemeni govt forces reportedly recapture Mocha

In the news, Yemen's government has reportedly taken over Mocha port, west of Taiz province. UKMTO announced three back-to-back incidents today: an inbound LPG tanker struck by a projectile in Hormuz on 04 Oct, 11NM north of Khasab; a crude tanker struck in Hormuz on 04 Oct; and a crude tanker struck above the waterline on 03 Oct. Moreover, rumours of a fire were heard at Saudi Aramco's Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Company in the Al-Makkah Province in Saudi Arabia. Although this has yet to be confirmed, unusual and high-intensity VIIRS thermal hits were observed, and thick smoke was seen spreading in satellite imagery. In the US, the SPR declined further by 767kb/d in the week ending 25 Sep to 283mb, a new record low. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing an executive order to expand access to tax-exempt diesel that could be announced as early as today. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $2.80/bbl and $11.57/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated Brent, we saw better buying again pre-window, with Balmo Oct'26 DFL trading up to $14.35/bbl as the same trade continued to bid cargos. Pre-window 5-9 Oct'26 vs Bal Oct'26 DTD traded up to $10.75/bbl, with a market maker lifting a major. However, we saw sellers out 19-23 Oct'26 vs Cal Nov'26 at $7.90/bbl. In the physical window, we saw the same trade bidding across grades and pushing the physical diff up to around $18.40/bbl. In the paper window, we initially saw buying with 12-16 Oct'26 CFD lifted up to $17.10/bbl and 19-23 Oct'26 CFD up to $9.75/bbl by trades and majors before Market makers hit CFDs down a bit. Also saw a major sell 12-16 Oct'26 1w at $7.30/bbl.

Extremely quiet afternoon in Brent/Dubai, with tiny volumes blocking in OTC. The Nov'26 Brent/Dubai traded between -$1.90/bbl and -$1.75/bbl, with more sell-side interest in both Nov'26 and Dec'26 Brent/Dubai. The Dubai spreads ended up trading lower into the close alongside Brent spreads, with Brent/Dubai boxes trading in a tight range. The Nov/Dec'26 Dubai spread gave back the post-MOC gains, trading back down from $3.70/bbl to $3.32/bbl.

VLSFO: It was a relatively thin afternoon in Fuel Oil; Prompt Sing spread came off while the crack remained strong. Nov/Dec'26 Sing was trading at $34.75/mt in the early afternoon, but then some sell-side interest came in OTC, and it was offered down to $34.00/mt; it did not trade in the window. Dec/Jan'27 actually traded higher this afternoon, from $26.00/mt to $26.25/mt in the early afternoon and from $26.25/mt to $26.50/mt in the window. After a strong morning, the Nov'26 Sing crack continued to rally, trading up to $24.50/mt; during the window, it traded up another 15c to $24.65/bbl. Euro complex continued to struggle for liquidity into the afternoon; Nov/Dec'26 Sing traded in tiny volume post window at $11.25/mt while Dec/Jan'27 last traded pre window at $8.75/mt. Nov'26 Euro crack was a little choppy this afternoon; it traded up and down from -$1.65/bbl to -$2.00/bbl but ultimately closed out the afternoon trading at the same level it started, -$1.65/bbl.

HSFO: Deferred 380 spreads traded a little higher this afternoon while the prompt crack strengthened significantly. Nov/Dec'26 380 consistently traded at $39.75/mt this afternoon, while Dec/Jan'27 and Jan/Feb'27 both traded 50c higher at $24.00/mt and $16.75/mt respectively. Nov'26 380 crack built on this morning's strength, climbing from $2.35/bbl at this morning's close to $3.10/bbl pre-window; it did not trade during or after the window. Dec'26 380 crack was bid up in low volume from -$1.00/bbl to -$0.50/bbl. Barge spreads rallied this afternoon, with Nov/Dec'26 trading up from $15.00/mt to $16.00/mt pre-window; it rallied another dollar to $17.00/mt in the window and then strengthened to $18.00/mt post-window; Dec/Jan'27 was bid up from $12.00/mt to $13.00/mt. Nov'26 Barge crack saw good volume traded on screen this afternoon; it was bid up from -$11.40/bbl to -$11.00/bbl, Dec'26 crack traded between -$11.00/bbl and -$10.90/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw selling down to $4.50/bbl in Nov/Dec'26 with ICE gasoil coming off, while E/W also saw selling hit from -$94.00/mt down to -$97.00/mt Nov'26 E/W. Regrade continued sell-side in Summer 2027 as Nov'26 remained steady at $1.90/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads weakened overall, Nov/Dec'26 trading from $43.00/mt down to $41.00/mt while Nov'26 cracks traded range-bound around $73.25/bbl. European jet diffs strengthened overall, with Nov'26 trading up from $136.00/mt to $140.00/mt.

This afternoon gasoline was mixed, with the East better supported than EBOB. Nov arbs firmed from 1.30c/gal to 1.80c/gal on screen through the window, which pressured front EBOB – with Q1 27 arbs moving more than the prompt up to 24.86c/gal, Q2 27 trading 27.75c/gal and sell-side interest in Feb arb at 18.5c/gal. EBOB cracks traded up to highs of 31.13/bbl early afternoon before easing, with Nov trading 30.5/bbl mid-afternoon and 30.7/bbl end of window, Q1 27 trading 22.55/bbl and Cal 27 21.9/bbl. Spreads held up, with Nov/Dec trading $69.75/mt to $70.25/mt and Nov/Jan $108.5/mt, while Nov gasnap traded $247/mt. The East was more resilient, as Nov E/W firmed from -5.85/bbl to -4.95/bbl on stronger 92 cracks, with Nov 92 cracks trading from 25.9/bbl to 25.5/bbl, Nov/Dec 92 at 8.2/bbl and Q1 27 E/W trading -5/bbl.

It was a thin afternoon in naphtha, with flows in NWE mixed, but front cracks were better bid by a physical player in the window. Nov'26 cracks climbed from -$5.65/bbl to -$5.25/bbl. Q1'27 cracks traded higher from -$6.65/bbl up to -$6.50/bbl, and E/W went better bid as well in the window, with front at $65.00/mt and Q1'27 E/W buying up to $49.50/mt from trade houses. There was scale-back Nov'26 MOPJ crack selling from $1.80/bbl to $2.00/bbl as well during the window, but spreads were relatively quiet in both regions.

This afternoon in NGLs, Nov FEI was trading around $885/mt, up from $880/mt pre-window. Nov/Dec FEI traded at highs of $44/mt, up from $42/mt post-morning window. Dec/Dec FEI also rose, trading at $221/mt up from $217/mt in the morning window. Nov C3 EW traded at $169/mt, keeping C3 NWE flat price in line, trading within the range of $716/mt and $720.5/mt.

The front Arbs sold off down to -$403/mt, peaked at -$395/mt before trading back down to -$399/mt. The Cal 27 Arb traded at -$239/mt, down slightly from printing around -$235/mt.
LST flat price traded up throughout the afternoon, starting off at 92.25c/gal before moving up to 93.25c/gal. LST spreads also rallied outside of prompt months with Q1/Q2 LST moving up from 7c/gal pre window to 7.375c/gal. Q2/Q3 LST traded at 2c/gal, up 0.375c/gal overnight.

Butane traded down during the window, with Cal 27 C4 ENT/C3 LST trading down at 28.375c/gal from around 28.75c/gal. There was physical player demand for Butane MOPJs today, with C4ENT/MOPJ trading at -$233/mt. Further down the curve, Cal 27 C4 ENT traded at 110c/gal.