Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Weaker at $92.20
China oil imports hit 8yr low; Iraq reroutes exports; Saudi GDP +3%; Ghana boosts refining capacity.
Published: June 9, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu
4 page report
This morning, Aug'26 Brent futures dropped from $94.08/bbl at 02:58 BST to $92.22/bbl at 10:35 BST (time of writing), approaching the historically important 100-day moving average.
China’s crude oil imports fell to approximately 7.8 mb/d in May, the lowest level since October 2017 and a more than eight-year low, according to data from the General Administration of Customs cited by Bloomberg. This compares with China’s average crude imports of around 11.6 mb/d in 2025. Iraq's cabinet has approved a major expansion of exports through the Kurdistan–Turkey pipeline system to Ceyhan, aiming to raise flows from about 220kb/d to 770kb/d alongside new overland routes via Syria and potential links to Jordan. Iraq has begun moving large volumes of oil by road into Syria as part of an emergency shift in export strategy. In the latest shipment, around 150 tanker trucks crossed from Iraq into Syria through the Rabia–Yarubiyah border crossing, carrying fuel oil destined for the Mediterranean port of Baniyas. From there, the cargo is intended to reach global markets by sea. Although the land route had been abandoned for decades, the end of the Syrian civil war and interruptions caused by regional warfare have made it the most viable alternative at present, despite the associated higher costs. Saudi Arabia’s economy grew 3% y/y in Q1'26, driven by both oil and non-oil sectors, with non-oil activities contributing the largest share of growth as diversification under Vision 2030 continues. Oil and non-oil sectors both expanded by 2.9%, while government activity rose 1.5%. However, GDP fell 1.2% q/q on a seasonally adjusted basis. Forecasts remain positive, with the OECD projecting growth of 3.2% in 2026, rising to 4.3% in 2027. Ghana has begun a major push to expand its oil refining capacity, with the first delivery of Jubilee crude to the Sentuo Oil Refinery marking a key milestone in domestic processing. The refinery is expected to expand from 40kb/d to 100kb/d, with the government planning a formal launch of the expansion on 24 Jun. Finally, the Aug/Sep’26 and Aug/Feb’27 Brent futures spreads are at $1.89/bbl and $8.85/bbl, respectively.
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