Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
CFTC Weekly: Crude Bulls Take A Breather
Crude money managers reduce net positioning for first time in nine weeks; further shorts added to Heating Oil and Natural Gas.
In the week ending 17 Feb, money managers were risk-off in Brent futures, trimming both long and short positions.
- Given the larger proportional decline in shorts, this lifted the long:short ratio up from 2.97:1.00 to 3.00:1.00 w/w, while the change in net positioning was negligible, staying around 250mb over the week. Meanwhile, speculative positioning in WTI saw a bearish turn over the week, as net positions declined by 15mb, pressuring the long:short ratio down from 1.70:1.00 to 1.53:1.00 w/w. This marks the first decline in net crude positioning in nine weeks.
- In the week to 17 Feb, M1 Brent was pressured down to the $67/bbl level where it has retained support. While funds are increasingly tentative about the war risk premium, overall crude net positioning remain at six-month highs.
- In the refined products, ICE gasoil saw another risk-off week, as money managers reduced their long and short positions for a second consecutive week. Net positioning in ICE gasoil has declined for a second consecutive week, with gasoil players turning cautious to geopolitical risk.
- Meanwhile, long speculative positions in RBOB declined for the first time in six weeks. However, given the larger propotional decline in short positions, this lifted the long:short ratio from 6.40:1.00 to 6.66:1.00, the 69th percentile for all weeks since 2013.
- Shorts accelerated their purchases in Heating Oil, adding 6.66mb (+25.7%) over the week. On a percentile basis, the money manager long:short ratio has fallen from the 63rd to 35th percentile over the past fortnight.
- In Henry Hub, building on last week's bearish shift, funds continued to add short positions to the tune of 18k lots (+10%) over the week.
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