Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Risk On, Risk Off
Money managers risk-on in Brent, long prod/merc positions down 20% since start of conflict; OI drops in gasoil and RBOB
Published: May 4, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu
13 page report
In the week ending 28 Apr, money managers were risk-on in Brent futures, with their long and short positions rising for a second consecutive week.
- The greater proportional increase in shorts pressured the long:short ratio lower w/w, while net positioning improved. Long prod/merc positions extended their decline, falling by 48mb (-5%) over the week. Overall long prod/merc positions have fallen by around 20% since the start of the Iran conflict.
- Money managers turned bearish in WTI futures as they trimmed long positions and added short positions. The decline in longs comes after three consecutive weeks of increases. Net positioning fell from 99.9mb to 80.3mb, where it was previously at 9-month highs.
- Reflecting the more liquid contract, the Jul'26 Brent futures rose from around $90 to $105/bbl in the week ending 28 Apr, reflecting uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the bullish sentiment was not necessarily in money manager positioning, potentially in-the-money longs used this opportunity to exit positions, providing liquidity to fresh longs.
Refined product futures
- Open Interest in ICE gasoil futures dropped for the fourth consecutive week, at a similar pace to the previous week. Money managers turned bullish, adding long positions and trimming short positions, where the latter fell by 10% w/w. However, net positioning at 59mb remain below early April levels.
- In RBOB futures, open interest fell by 5% over the week, marking the eighth decline in nine weeks. Overall OI has fallen by 33% since the outbreak of the Iran conflict. Money managers added long positions but trimmed shorts, bringing net positioning above 60mb for the first time in four weeks.
- Money managers were risk-on in ULSD Heating Oil for the third consecutive weeks, adding both longs and shorts. However, the addition of shorts have outpaced the addition of longs, and this has been a consistent pattern over the past few weeks. Net positioning has fell for the sixth week in a row, and the long:short percentile is below the 50th percentile for this first time since the start of the Iran conflict.
- A risk-on week for money managers in Natural Gas (Henry Hub) futures. Longs rose for the fourth consecutive week, with outright positions by 20% since four weeks prior. Net positioning rose for the second consecutive week, and is rising from the baseline of a 17-month low.
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