James Brodie
Head of Learning & Development, Flux
Hedge Fund Net Shorts on Brent Up to $18Bn, Trump Announces Nuclear Loans
Fed hike odds rise, stocks slide, dollar surges. Micron leads AI rally as nuclear investment and housing show strength.
Now close to 40% chance Fed hikes 25bp at the next meeting on 29th July.
S&P closes down 1.4% and Nasdaq down 3.3%, notably both closing on the lows, very weak. Kospi falls 10% yesterday with a marginal 1.4% bounce today. The dollar continues to surge with EURUSD breaking key support (Bloomberg).
While silver finds support at previous lows (Bloomberg)
Goldman Sachs trimming its 12-month US recession call to 15% from 25%, back at its long-term average
US S&P composite PMI data (Manufacturing & services) beats estimates to 52.2 from 51.5 last, while Germany weakens composite 48 (contraction) vs 48.8 prior, UK falls to 49.4 from 49.7.
Micron earnings today. The stock is now worth over $1.2 trillion and driving a broader momentum-based rally that is largely dependent on sentiment around Micron's stock.
Hedge fund net short bets on Brent crude oil are up to ~$18 billion, the highest in at least 10 years. Seems extreme with Brent just $2.5 dollars away from Feb 27th levels. (Goldman Sachs)
The Trump administration has announced $17.5 billion in conditional federal loans to fund 10 new large-scale nuclear reactors - one of the largest U.S. nuclear expansion initiatives in decades - with the goal of quadrupling domestic nuclear capacity by 2050, powering AI and data centres, and reducing dependence on foreign energy technology.
Here are the five stocks positioned to benefit:
$CCJ - Cameco. Owns nearly half of the private company building all 10 reactors, and supplies the uranium to fuel them.
$BAM - Brookfield. Owns the other half of that same company.
$BWXT - BWX Technologies. Manufactures the reactor components inside each plant.
$CW - Curtiss-Wright. Makes the pumps and valves that keep reactors operating safely.
$LEU - Centrus Energy. The only U.S. company enriching uranium domestically
$GOOGL replacing $VZ in the Dow. Google is joining Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia as the fifth Mag 7 name in the Dow Jones Industrial Average - a index that increasingly reads like a mega-cap tech portfolio.
U.S. housing showing signs of life. Home prices rose 0.3% MoM in May - the fastest monthly gain since January - and 2.5% YoY, the strongest annual growth in six months, per Redfin. The move reflects deals signed in April when mortgage rates dipped and demand responded, with closed sales hitting their highest level since 2022.
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