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Volatile Afternoon in Brent

Oil jumps on Iran-Israel-Hezbollah tensions, strike risk in Norway, mixed demand outlook; spreads widen.
Published: June 1, 2026
Written by:
Mita Chaturvedi

Mita Chaturvedi

Research Associate, Flux
Mita Chaturvedi
4 page report
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The Aug’26 Brent Futures contract saw a choppy afternoon: prices initially softened from just below $94/bbl at noon to below $93/bbl by 13:50 BST, but eventually rallied to $97.70/bbl at 16:03 BST. Prices have since eased to $95.97/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing)...

This afternoon's surge came after Iran's state-owned Tasnim news agency reported that the Iranian negotiating team had halted exchanging messages with the US following Israel's order to move troops further into Lebanon in its battle against Hezbollah. Tasnim also reported that the Iran-allied "Axis of Resistance" will "activate all fronts", triggering fears that key waterways such as the Bab al-Mandeb Strait could also be choked. Nonetheless, an Axios headline thereafter alleged that Hezbollah was ready for a full ceasefire with Israel - adding to uncertainty. In other news, Goldman Sachs said over the weekend that weak oil demand in China and Europe may present a critical downside risk to its Q4 2026 Brent futures forecast of $90/bbl and WTI futures forecast of $83/bbl, despite supply disruptions pushing prices higher. Meanwhile, nearly 8% of Norwegian offshore oil and gas workers plan to strike from 05 Jun if state-brokered wage negotiations fail this week, according to labour unions Styrke, Lederne and Safe. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Aug/Sep’26 spread is at $2.57/bbl, and the six-month Aug/Feb’27 spread is at $11.85/bbl.

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