Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Revenge of the Crude Bulls
In the week ending 13 Jan, money managers added a significant amount of bullish positions in both crude futures benchmarks....
In the week ending 13 Jan, money managers added a significant amount of bullish positions in both crude futures benchmarks following heightened geopolitical risk amid the Iranian protests and the increased scope of US military intervention....
Crude futures
- In the week ending 13 Jan, speculators added 52.6mb of longs in Brent w/w, the fastest increase in three months, equivalent to a 17% rise. Money manager long positions in WTI rose by the same percentage over the period. The long:short ratio in Brent rose from 1.64:1.00 to 2.15:1.00 w/w. This ratio sits on the 13th percentile for all weeks since 2013, which suggests that positioning is still relatively short on a historical basis. For WTI, long positions have risen in six of the past seven weeks, while net positioning has risen for the seventh consecutive week. Outright long positions are at their highest levels since August 2025.
- Brent reached intraday highs of $65.91/bbl on 13 Jan, a steep rise from the $60/bbl level in the previous week. However, prices faced resistance around the structural 200-day moving average around $65.75/bbl.
Refined product futures
- Open interest climbed in the week ending 13 Jan in the benchmark CME RBOB gasoline, ICE LS gasoil and CME Heating Oil futures contracts, amid producers/merchants adding to their long and short positions in all three contracts w/w, signalling an increase in refiner hedging.
- Moving to speculative changes, this week, the M1 ICE LS gasoil crack bottomed out at a low $20/bbl handle and climbed to a high of $23.10/bbl. Aligning with this, money managers were bullish this week, adding over 15.5mb to their net long positioning, bringing it to 51mb, its highest level since the week ending 9 Dec. Meanwhile, the M1 RBOB swap crack rose from a low $12/bbl handle on 06 Jan to $13.15/bbl on 13 Jan, but has since eased. Despite this relatively risk-off week, money managers added to their net long positioning, taking the speculative long-to-short ratio up from 2.7:1.0 to 3.3:1.0 w/w in the week ending 13 Jan. Finally, the M1 heating oil crack saw more support in the week ending 13 Jan, having risen from under $26/bbl to sitting at a high of $27.80/bbl on 13 Jan. Interestingly, money managers were bearish in the week ending 13 Jan, taking their net long positioning below zero for the first time since 13 May 2025.
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