Martha Dowding
Research Associate, Flux
Brent at $66/bbl
Brent trades around $66, Tengiz output ramps up, Libya investment surges, OPEC+ to keep output steady, India shifts Russian crude flows
Published: January 26, 2026
Written by:
Martha Dowding
4 page report
This morning, Mar’26 Brent crude futures strengthened to $66.54/bbl at 06.28 GMT. The contract then dropped to find support at $65.60/bbl at 08.33 GMT and was around $66.02/bbl at 10.21 GMT (time of writing).
Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield has gradually resumed production after a shutdown caused by a fire, with operator Tengizchevroil increasing output in steps. The government urged ExxonMobil to speed up repairs as the country also looks to diversify export routes to reduce future disruptions. US oil companies such as ConocoPhillips, Halliburton, SLB and Chevron are planning to expand investments in Libya as the country revives its energy sector, including a significant $20 billion project at the Waha oilfield expected to add 850 kb/d of capacity. Libya is also awarding new exploration licences for the first time in more than 17 years, with US companies qualifying, signalling renewed international confidence. Bloomberg reports that OPEC+ delegates said they currently expect to keep their existing plan to hold oil production steady next month at their upcoming Sunday meeting, maintaining a freeze on output increases in the first quarter amid a global supply surplus and ongoing geopolitical risks. So far, there’s been no indication that recent crises in Venezuela or Iran have forced a policy shift, though delegates said significant supply disruptions could prompt a response. Reliance Industries, previously the world’s largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude, has not purchased any Russian oil so far in January, according to industry sources and ship-tracking data. In contrast, India’s state-run refiners have increased imports as discounts widened to about $7 per barrel, nearly three times mid-2025 levels. Indian Oil Corporation bought a record 470 kb/d this month, while BPCL raised its purchases to 164 kb/d, both higher than December 2025 levels. Meanwhile, Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy continues to rely heavily on Russian crude, importing about 469 kb/d after being cut off from other suppliers due to EU sanctions. Finally, the front-month (Mar/Apr) and 6-month (Mar/Sep) Brent futures spreads are at $0.82/bbl and $2.06/bbl, respectively.
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