Edward Hayden-Briffett
Research Analyst, The Officials
Oil Drives Global Markets, Indian Inflation, Chinese Industrial Output
Retail money floods oil ETFs; India WPI rises to 2.13%; China output and infrastructure investment strengthen amid fragile outlook.
Oil is still driving global markets and retail traders are piling in. Over the past month, net inflows into pure-play oil ETFs surged to $211 million on Thursday, the highest level on record. The United States Oil Fund (USO) alone saw $32 million in retail buying, marking the third-largest daily inflow on record. The all-time high still stands at $42 million, which was recorded on 6 March. Overall
Indian inflation shows signs of improvement, with WPI rising to 2.13% y/y in February, continuing the steady recovery from deflation in October and November. That’s the highest since February 2025. India is highly exposed to Gulf disruption, with LPG particularly at risk. Manufacturing WPI was higher, at 2.92% y/y, particularly pushed up by tobacco and clothing.
China’s industrial output rose 6.3% y/y in January-February, the fastest since September, helped by strong exports and factory activity. Retail sales climbed 2.8%, more than triple December’s pace, while fixed-asset investment unexpectedly rose 1.8% after contracting in 2025.
The standout was infrastructure, where investment surged 11.4% y/y, the fastest Jan-Feb pace since 2021, suggesting fiscal support is starting to bite. Manufacturing investment rose 3.1%, but property investment still fell 11.1%, underlining the drag from real estate. The labour market remained soft, with urban unemployment rising to 5.3%.
The stronger start may push back expected easing, with markets now less confident of a March rate or RRR cut. Still, the rebound looks fragile. The Iran war, higher oil prices and weaker global trade threaten exports and margins, leaving Beijing’s 4.5%-5% growth target far from secure.
Data today: US industrial and manufacturing production, India unemployment rate, Canada inflation
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16 page report