Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Rises to $64.61/bbl
Venezuelan crude flows, ADNOC sees long-term demand, Canada courts India, Russia seeks tax relief, Trump hikes tariffs
The Apr’26 Brent futures contract has risen this morning, from $62.42/bbl at 06:40 GMT to $64.61/bbl at 09:45 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, Indian oil refiners are currently receiving only small amounts of Venezuelan crude, as most of the supply is being directed to the United States, slowing the return of Venezuelan oil to the world's third-largest importer. Trading firms Trafigura and Vitol began marketing Venezuelan oil after a 50mb agreement between Caracas and Washington, though an Indian trading executive told Reuters that offers from the trade houses have been limited, as the companies try to fulfil their commitments to the US market. Elsewhere, the head of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, has said that global oil demand will remain above 100mb/d through 2040, while demand for both liquefied natural gas (LNG) and electricity will grow by 50% or more. In Canada, Energy Minister Tim Hodgson stated that the country aims to increase energy exports to India to diversify its customer base and reduce reliance on US supply. During the Indian Energy Week conference, Hodgson described exporting 98% of energy to the US as a "strategic blunder” and expressed interest in collaborating with India. In other news, Lukoil has petitioned the Russian government to revise its oil tax formula, due to discounts on Russian crude surpassing $20/bbl. At this level, according to The Moscow Times, producers would need to pay into the budget instead of receiving compensation. In geopolitical news, US President Donald Trump has increased tariffs on South Korea to 25% after accusing the nation of “not living up” to a trade deal reached last year. In a post on social media, Trump announced the tariffs across products such as cars, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and “all other Reciprocal TARIFFS.” Finally, the Apr/May and Apr/Aug spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.02/bbl, respectively.
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