Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Rises to $66.08/bbl
Tengiz restarts slowly after fire, India crude imports hit a multi-month high, and US Gulf oil/LNG exports halted by severe winter storms.
The Apr’26 Brent futures contract traded higher this afternoon, rising from $65.05/bbl at 14:33 GMT to $66.08/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, Kazakhstan's largest oilfield, Tengiz, is likely to have restored less than half its usual output as it gradually recovers from a fire and power outage. Production at the Tengiz and Korolev fields was temporarily halted on 18 Jan following a generator fire that caused a power supply failure. According to Reuters sources, the fields are expected to produce about 260kb/d, roughly 26% of their normal production levels, and that daily production will reach roughly 46% of usual levels by 07 Feb. Elsewhere, government data indicated that India's crude oil imports increased by 1.6% m/m in December, reaching 21.59M mt - the highest level since March. Data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed that crude oil imports increased by 6.9% y/y, up from 20.20M mt in December 2024. Meanwhile, imports of crude oil products decreased roughly 5.9% y/y to 4M mt in December, while exports of these products dropped about 6% to 5.41M mt. In the US, ship tracking data from Vortexa show that exports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas from US Gulf Coast ports dropped to zero on Sunday following a severe winter storm that swept across the nation. Reportedly, the cold temperatures caused up to 2mb/d of oil to go offline over the weekend. Finally, at the time of writing, the Apr/May and Apr/Oct spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.84/bbl, respectively.
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