Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Trades Up To $80.26/bbl
Brent Reaches $80 on US-Iran war, threats of Strait of Hormuz closure; Ras Tanura refinery shut; OPEC lifts April output by 206kb/d
This morning, May’26 Brent crude futures surged by nearly 10% as the US and Israel launched air strikes against Iran while shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz halts to a near standstill.
Prices opened $4 higher from Friday’s close, rallying to highs of $80.26/bbl at 08:25 GMT before retreating below $79/bbl by 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Similarly, Brent spreads ripped higher, with the front May/Jun’26 spread opening 60c higher from Friday’s close, rallying to highs of $2.20/bbl before falling correcting lower to $1.85/bbl. Following their meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ will lift crude oil output by 206kb/d in April, widely viewed as symbolic and inconsequential. Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery, the 550kb/d Ras Tanura, after a drone strike as a precautionary measure. In Iraqi Kurdistan, companies including DNO, Gulf Keystone Petroleum, Dana Gas, and HKN Energy have stopped output at their fields as a precaution, with no damage reported. In other news, a fire at Petroecuador's 110kb/d Esmeraldas oil refinery, the country's largest, temporarily halted operations after a fire broke out in the charge pumps of one of its units, the state oil company said on Sunday, adding the blaze had been brought under control. Belgium seized the suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker Ethera in the North Sea on Saturday night after special forces boarded the Guinea-flagged vessel, accused of using false documents to evade sanctions on Russian oil, with French helicopter support, marking a tougher European stance praised by Zelenskyy and Macron but condemned by Russia as piracy. Finally, the May/Jun’26 and May/Nov’26 Brent futures spreads are at $1.80 and $7.24/bbl respectively.
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