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Hormuz, We Have A Problem

Iran strikes lift risk premium; heavy longs add upside on disruption risk, but correction looms if tensions ease.
Published: March 2, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu

Vincent Wu

Research Associate, Flux
Vincent Wu
,
Mita Chaturvedi

Mita Chaturvedi

Research Associate, Flux
Mita Chaturvedi
,
Martha Dowding

Martha Dowding

Research Associate, Flux
Martha Dowding
and
Donna Dong

Donna Dong

Research Analyst, Flux
Donna Dong
Reviewed by:
Giovanni Simonetti

Giovanni Simonetti

Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Giovanni Simonetti
16 page report
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In our Oil Market Report in January, we discussed how support in the oil market was catalysed by the emergence of a geopolitical risk premium amid heightened tensions over Iran. February saw a re-run of the same film, with Washington upping the ante and threatening military action against Tehran if it does not reach a deal about its nuclear ambitions.

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