Brent Rangebound As Trump Eyes Meeting with Domestic Refiners and Retailers

In the news, US President Trump is set to meet with US refiners and fuel retailers next week to spotlight efforts to lower gasoline prices, as the administration looks to ease consumer pressure from the Iran war ahead of November's midterms. Expected attendees include refiners Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and PBF Energy, along with major retailers, according to Reuters sources. The meeting comes after the biggest US oil companies and refiners posted strong Q2 earnings, as the Iran war disrupted global energy markets and tightened gasoline supply, which has drawn criticism from Trump, who's argued producers benefiting from higher prices should do more to bring costs down, and has publicly pressed them to do so. The administration is also in talks with Venezuela's interim government about taking an ownership stake in the country's oil resources, Axios has reported, citing two US officials. Discussions are focused on more than a dozen productive oil fields owned by former Venezuelan insiders and interests previously controlled by China. In return for granting the US a stake that would more than double its oil reserves, private companies, including American firms, would develop the fields and provide oil revenue to the Venezuelan government, per the report. In other news, oil flows out of the Persian Gulf have recovered to roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels. Total Middle East crude and product exports now sit at 15-16mb/d. Volumes remain about 7-8 mb/d below February levels. In Brazil, an oil export tax is in limbo after a local court ordered it suspended, just as the government's foreign trade chamber approved extending it another 60 days. The conflicting moves leave the 12% tax's future unclear and set up a potential legal fight between Lula's administration and oil producers challenging the levy. Camex approved extending the tax, due to expire early next month, for 60 days starting 08 Sep, per the trade and industry ministry. But a federal court had already granted an injunction suspending it, according to a decision seen by Reuters. Finally, as of the time of writing, the Nov/Dec and Nov/May’27 Brent futures spreads are at $2.30/bbl and $9.44/bbl, respectively.

This morning in Dated we saw Chinese selling good size on Oct'26 Dated/Dubai, whilst we saw strong Nov'26 DFL buying OTC and screen up to $2.38/bbl. We saw a buyer of 23-25 Sep vs 30-02 Oct trading at $0.53/bbl, whilst there was a seller of 01-04 Sep 3-week selling down to $0.40/bbl and 07-11 Sep 2-week sold at $0.50/bbl. Further down the curve, we saw a major buying in good size Q1'27 DFL up to $1.30/bbl.

This morning in Brent/Dubai we gapped lower and saw aggressive selling by trade and refiner in Sep'26 and Oct'26 Brent/Dubai, strong buying in Sep/Oct'26 Dubai spread. The Sep'26 Brent/Dubai traded down from $1.80/bbl to $0.53/bbl, the Oct'26 Brent/Dubai traded down from $4.40/bbl to $3.50/bbl. The Sep/Oct'26 spread traded up from $5.00/bbl to $5.50/bbl. There was a different refiner bidding Sep'26 Brent/Dubai around $0.50/bbl. The boxes all moved lower, with the Oct/Nov'26 box trading down from -$0.40/bbl to -$0.70/bbl. There was also some fund selling of Q4'26 Brent/Dubai around $4.30/bbl.

This morning in VLSFO there was initial weakness in Sing 0.5 with Sep'26 crack trading down to $19.10/bbl on screen, as the morning progressed real buying came in and the crack was bid up to $20.00/bbl. Spreads opened at similar levels to last night's close and were then bid up in tandem with the crack, Sep/Oct'26 traded up from $36.00/mt to $37.50/mt and Oct/Nov'26 last traded at $26.00/mt up $1.50/mt this morning. It was a slower morning for Euro 0.5 this morning, Sep/Oct'26 and Sep'26 Euro crack have not really traded and are currently $21.00/mt and $6.80/bbl value respectively.

In HSFO, there was real buying on the 380 complex this morning after yesterday's aggressive sell-off, Sep/Oct'26 380 was bid up as high as $31.00/mt from $25.00/mt, it has since lost a dollar and is trading at $30.00/mt. Sep'26 380 crack was also bid up this morning, trading back up to -$2.70/bbl from yesterdays close of -$3.70/bbl. Barge spreads also traded higher this morning with Sep/Oct'26 gaining 75c to $11.25/mt while Sep'26 Barge was range-bound trading between -$11.30/bbl and -$11.20/bbl. 380 E/W was stronger this morning trading up $6.00/mt to $55.00/mt.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were mixed overall, with Oct/Nov trading from $5.55/bbl up to $5.75/bbl. Front E/W saw buying in Q1'27 at -$65/mt, while the front priced down to -$91/mt in Sep before firming back to -$89/mt post-window. Kero spreads were sell-side, while regrade rolls were implied bid, with Sep regrade climbing from -$4.45/bbl up to -$4.05/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads firmed overall, with Sep/Dec trading from $137/mt up to $146/mt, while cracks reached $67.50/bbl in Nov.

This morning in gasoline, MOC touch better bid in Sing 92. Funds buyside of Oct'26 E/W this morning at -$11.25/bbl with Sep'26 E/W slightly weaker on the day with some selling on 92 cracks this morning. RBBRs stronger with rins getting lifted overnight with sell side interest in Q2'27 arb at 30.4c/gal, with market makers lifting Dec'26 arb at 17.5c/gal. Some buying in Q1/Q2'27 EBOB crack roll in small size, with -$4.45/bbl and -$4.50/bbl both getting sold.

This morning in naphtha was mixed, with MOC better bid and early strength in E/W fading through the window. NWE naphtha cracks were quiet and range-bound in the front, with Sep'26 holding around -$3.00/bbl after trading between -$2.90/bbl and -$3.10/bbl, while Q1'27 firmed to -$5.85/bbl and Cal'27 was offered and trading at -$7.75/bbl; spreads were low volume but supported, with Sep/Oct'26 around $23.00/mt, Oct/Nov'26 moving to $28.00/mt, Sep/Oct'26 around $23.00/mt and Dec/Jan'27 around $12.50/mt. E/W initially opened bid before coming off, with Sep'26 moving from $59.00/mt to $56.00/mt offered and Oct'26 from $50.75/mt to $48.50/mt. MOPJ was illiquid on cracks, though Dec'26 moved from flat to $0.45/bbl, Q1'27 was around -$1.40/bbl and the Q1/Q2'27 traded at $2.83/mt, while spreads were slightly better offered but supported by 92/MOPJ selling, with Sep/Oct'26 trading up to $31.00/mt before coming off to $29.50/mt, and Oct/Nov'26 firm around $29.00/mt.

This morning in NGLs, FEI was stronger before finding a top into the window. Spreads were better bid, with Sep/Oct'26 FEI trading up to $38.00/mt having closed yesterday at $36.00/mt, and Oct/Nov'26 was bid up to $29.00/mt, before softening to close the morning at $27.50/mt. As FEI was stronger in the front, LST/FEI came off slightly, with Oct'26 trading down to -$347.00/mt, compared to -$339.50/mt, and Cal'27 arb was trading at -$208.00/mt having opened the day at -$204.00/mt. There was also sell side interest in Q1'27 LST/FEI that was sold at -$260.00/mt, where it closed the morning. Oct'26 E/W had good buying today up to $173.00/mt, and in Europe, Sep/Oct'26 NEW was sold at $7.00/mt, before strengthening to $8.00/mt end window. End window on screen, Sep'26 FEI flat price was lifted at $762.00/mt.

Quiet market awaits Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackon Hole today.

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