Brent climbs ahead of Qatari PM visit to Tehran

In the news, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani is due to visit Tehran on Thursday for talks on de-escalating US-Iran tensions and reviving dialogue between the two nations. Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing for a renewed war against the Houthis. A Saudi official, speaking to the New York Times, said that the Kingdom prefers peace, but is ready for war with the Houthis, and will protect itself by any means necessary. Singapore's oil product inventories rose by 1.509mb w/w to 39.182mb in the week ending 27 Aug, according to data by Enterprise Singapore. In other news, TotalEnergies has officially completed the transfer of its 10% stake in the US-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project in Russia. The US Interior Department is preparing to relax environmental review requirements for some oil and gas exploration activities in Alaska's National Petroleum ​Reserve to accelerate permitting for winter oil and ​gas exploration activities. Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec'26 and Nov/May'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.97/bbl and $8.33/bbl, respectively.

Very slow morning in dated. We opened up lower on Sep/Oct'26 DFL and saw some initial sell-side interest. However, buyers came out on Sep/Nov'26 DTD, trading $3.35/bbl. We saw buy-side interest in 1-7 Sep/Cal Oct'26, bid up to $1.80/bbl, and $14.00/bbl-18 Sep/Cal Oct'26, bid up to $1.80/bbl. We saw good buying in Q427 DFL, trading up to $1.83/bbl and buy-side interest in Q127 bid up to $1.10/bbl.

This morning in Brent/Dubai, there initially was some buying on screen, but we went well offered during the window. The Sep Brent/Dubai traded down from $2.5/bbl to $1.75/bbl, with the Sep/Oct Dubai spread trading up from $4.5/bbl to $5/bbl on screen. There was again some indication that refiner would buy more Nov Brent/Dubai EFS, but none trading. There was also products selling of Q4, trading $4.95/bbl and $4.9/bbl in good size. The other Brent/Dubai boxes were quiet OTC, but continued to move lower. The Sep/Oct Brent/Dubai box traded down from -$2.30/bbl to -$3/bbl.

There was a flurry buying on Sing 0.5 early this morning, Sep/Oct'26 traded up as high as $36.00/mt from last nights close of $32.50/mt, it then sold off during the window to $34.75/mt. It was a similar story for Sep'26 Sing cracks which opened around a dollar higher at $20.00/bbl from last nights close, as the window approached there was real selling and they traded at $19.50/bbl at window close. Sep'26 Euro 0.5 crack was offered in the window trading down from $7.15/bbl to $6.90/bbl, there was little spoken of Euro spreads, however they opened considerably lower than yesterday’s close with Sep/Oct'26 trading at $19.75/mt down from $22.00/mt yesterday evening.

380 opened weaker this morning and continued to sell off as the morning progressed, Chinese and Sing trade were sell side of $380.00/mt spreads which saw Sep/Oct'26 sell down from $35.00/mt to $32.00/mt by the start of the window, this downside pressure continued into the window as Sep/Oct'26 traded down to $31.00/mt by window close. Oct/Nov'26 bottomed out at $14.50/mt representing at $3.00/mt drop, it is currently trading around $15.00/mt. 380 cracks followed suit with Sep'26 selling off from -$1.00/bbl to -$1.80/bbl.
Barges opened lower than last nights close but were bid up as the morning progressed with Sep/Oct'26 trading up from $10.25/mt to $10.75/mt during the window and then bouncing up to $11.50/mt post window. Sep'26 Barge crack traded between -$10.60/bbl and -$10.40/bbl this morning on rather low liquidity

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were buy side, with Dec/Jan trading from $3.85/bbl up to $4.00/bbl, while gasoil E/W sold off into the window, moving from -$93/mt down to -$94/mt. Sep/Nov kero saw good selling at $4.25/bbl, while Oct regrade remained bid at -$1.75/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads strengthened into and post window, with Sep/Dec trading from $130/mt up to $134.50/mt, while Oct cracks remained at $71.50/bbl.

This morning, gasoline was strong again. Sep 92 cracks traded up from $21/bbl to $21.70/bbl, but Q4'26 was offered at $16/bbl. Spreads rallied as well, with Sep/Oct firming from $5.15/bbl to $5.50/bbl. EBOB strength pushed front E/W down from -$19.50/bbl to -$20.80/bbl, as Sep EBOB cracks got bid up from $40.60/bbl to $42.45/bbl and Sep/Oct rallied from $118.50/mt to $124.50/mt.

This morning in naphtha was firmer overall, with MOC better bid, prompt spreads supported on higher crude, cracks bid and E/W firm. MOPJ cracks strengthened, with Sep'26 moving from $2.55/bbl to $2.90/bbl before easing to $2.80/bbl, while Oct'26 moved up to $1.75/bbl and Q2'27 was around -$4.60/bbl. Spreads were better bid, with Sep/Oct'26 moving from $25.25/mt to $27.00/mt and Oct/Nov'26 from $26.00/mt to $26.50/mt. E/W was firmer, with Sep'26 up from $54.50/mt to $55.00/mt and Oct'26 trading at $48.50/mt. Europe also followed the stronger tone, with Sep'26 cracks moving from -$3.60/bbl to -$3.30/bbl, the Sep/Oct'26 roll around $0.35/bbl and Q4'26 at -$4.70/bbl, while spreads firmed as Sep/Oct'26 moved from $19.00/mt to $20.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 was around $10.75/mt.

This morning in NGLs, there was some smalls Chinese buying of FEI flat price out of Oct'26 at $702.00/mt. FEI spreads were better bid, seeing Sep/Oct'26 trade up to $36.00/mt, having opened the day at $34.00/mt, and Oct/Nov'26 was bid up to $26.50/mt, compared to yesterday’s closing level of $24.50/mt. There was also buying of Oct/Mar'27 FEI at $108.00/mt. Oct'26 LST/FEI weakened across the morning as FEI flat price was stronger, trading at -$333.00/mt before closing the morning at -$337.00/mt. In the deferred, Q1'27 LST/FEI was trading at -$250.00/mt, and the Cal arb went at -$204.00/mt, $1 weaker than yesterday’s close. Interest both sides on Sep'26 FEI/MOPJ that was trading at -$52.00/mt, before strengthening to -$50.00/mt end window. On screen, Sep'26 FEI flat price was lifted at $743.00/mt end window.

US July PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, hits 3.7%, above expectations of 3.6%. Core PCE inflation was 3.3%, the second-highest reading since October 2024. US inflation continues to run at nearly double the Fed's 2.0% target (own assets or be left behind!). US GDP came in at 1.5% QoQ (Q2 estimate), matching estimates and down from 21% in Q1.

US new home sales fell 10.5% MoM in July to 607,000 units, the lowest level in 6 months and far worse than the 1.4% decline expected. Excluding January 2026, this was the weakest reading since November 2022. New home sales have now declined in 3 of the last 4 months and are down 6.3% YoY.

Nvidia reported record Q2 revenue of $96.2 billion - up 106% year-on-year - with data centres generating $89 billion alone and margins holding at 75%, before guiding Q3 at $108 billion assuming zero China data centre revenue, implying +1,730% revenue growth in just four years. The CFO guided fiscal 2028 revenue growth of 70% against analyst expectations of 44%, suggesting the $570 billion consensus is understated by at least $100 billion, while Jensen Huang used the call to endorse nuclear as the primary power source for data centres - projecting electricity consumption to grow from 6% to 20% of total U.S. supply by 2035. Shares rallied 5% - though specific concerns remain around memory costs squeezing future margins, capex return on investment, and circular arrangements where Nvidia funds the customers buying its chips. At $5 trillion-plus, this is the most extraordinary growth story in corporate history - but the market is still deciding whether even Nvidia can grow into its own valuation.

Anthropic is targeting an IPO as soon as the end of August at a $2 trillion valuation - larger than South Korea's entire economy, equivalent to Spain's GDP, and 12.5 times the combined annual revenue of every tech company in the S&P 500.

The Bank of Korea raised rates by 25 bps to 3.00%, marking its second straight hike and the first back-to-back rate increases since the COVID era. The central bank also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%, signalling stronger confidence in the economy even as it tightens policy.