Brent Trades in $2 Range as SoH Traffic Ticks Up

In the news, Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic has ticked up today despite the US-Iran standoff. Visible commodity vessel transits totalled 10 on 26 Aug, up slightly from 8 on 25 Aug, as per Kpler. This remains well under the 10-day average around 15. Two medium-range fuel tankers, an LPG carrier, a Panamax tanker, and three handymax tankers entered from the Gulf of Oman; 3 tankers exited into the Gulf. Iran and Oman are reportedly still discussing details of a Hormuz agreement, after Iran's Revolutionary Guards said the two sides had already agreed on how to share the waterway and its revenue. Elsewhere, more Dar Blend crude has returned to the marine fuel blending pool in Singapore and Malaysia this month as Chinese refining demand eases, according to Reuters sources. The rise in Sudanese imports added to other arbitrage supply, pressuring Singapore's VLSFO market toward month-end. Earlier this year, Dar Blend had been diverted to Chinese refineries after the US-Iran war disrupted heavy crude supply from the Middle East. In Turkey, diesel imports from the US and India have hit record levels in August, as Russia's export ban and wider Iran war disruptions push importers to diversify supply. So far this month, Turkey has imported more than 120kb/d of Indian diesel and 90kb/d from the US - the highest monthly totals on record. Russia's diesel export ban runs until at least end-August after Ukrainian strikes disrupted domestic refinery supply, while Middle Eastern volumes remain curbed by war damage to regional refineries and reduced Hormuz shipping. In other news, Qatar and Kuwait have boosted crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz back to 70% of pre-war levels, following the UAE's playbook of shuttling oil through the chokepoint and using ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, according to Bloomberg. Pre-conflict, the two collectively exported about 2mb/d via Hormuz. Finally, as of the time of writing, the Nov/Dec and Nov/May’27 Brent futures spreads are at $2.23/bbl and $8.79/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we saw better Sep/Oct'26 buying pre-window with the front of the curve pushed higher before Chinese selling came in, pushing down DFLs. Pre-window we saw 01-04 Sep'26 2-week trade up to $0.30/bbl and $14.00/bbl-18 Sep/Cal Oct'26 trade at $2.22/bbl. In the window we saw a trade lift a Midland cargo whilst another remained offered, leaving the physical diff pretty unchanged. Post-window Sep'26 sold back down with Chinese selling of Sep'26 Dated vs Oct'26 Dubai. We also saw a size buyer of Cal Oct'26 vs 14-20 Oct'26 lifted at $0.12/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we traded range-bound, with more buying of Oct'26 and Nov'26 EFS by refiner, but the screen remaining pretty well offered, with also some Chinese selling of Dated/Dubai. The market was overall relatively quiet, the Dubai spreads trading range-bound and the boxes trading slightly lower. The Sep/Oct'26 Dubai spread traded between $4.80/bbl to $5.03/bbl, finishing towards the bottom of this range. There was trade selling of Oct/Nov'26 box, which traded down from -$0.29/bbl to -$0.40/bbl.

This afternoon in VLSFO, Sep/Oct'26 Sing 0.5 traded at similar levels to this morning's close, it peaked at $36.00/mt just before the window and then sold back down to $35.50/mt during the window. Sep'26 Sing crack behaved similarly trading between $19.40/bbl and $19.60/bbl. Euro 0.5 complex strengthened this afternoon, particularly spreads as Sep/Oct'26 was bid up from $18.00/mt to $20.50/mt and Oct/Nov'26 from $16.50/mt to $18.00/mt. Sep'26 Euro 0.5 strengthened from $6.50/bbl to $6.70/bbl.

In HSFO, the aggressive sell off on 380 this morning continued into the afternoon and accelerated. There was a high volume of screen selling on Sep/Nov'26 380 and a lack of buyside liquidity on 380 E/W, this resulted in Sep/Oct'26 selling down from $36.50/mt to $26.00/mt and Oct/Nov'26 lost $2.50/mt last trading at $12.00/mt. Sep'26 380 crack sold off in a similar fashion, consistently selling off from -$2.00/bbl to -$3.70/bbl. As mentioned due to a lack of buyside liquidity Sep'26 380 e/w couldn’t find any support and sold off from $56.00/mt to $48.75/mt. Barges were only slightly weaker this afternoon, Sep/Oct'26 traded down from $10.50/mt to $10.00/mt during the window and Sep'26 crack shed around 50c trading at -$11.20/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw buying in Oct/Nov'26, trading up to $5.20/bbl, while Oct'26 E/W went better bid, trading from -$81.00/mt up to -$79.00/mt lifted last. Regrade was well bid in the front, with Oct'26 lifted up to -$1.40/bbl on screen and kero spreads saw sell-side interest in Sep/Oct'26, trading at $1.75/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads weakened overall, with Sep/Dec'26 trading around $132.00/mt, while Nov'26 cracks weakened to $65.50/bbl. European jet diffs rallied in the front, with Sep'26 trading up to $56.00/mt, while Q1'27 was at $101.50/mt.

This afternoon gasoline rallied again, as RBBRs traded up from $28.50/bbl to $29.50/bbl in Nov'26 and arbs were volatile, with Sep'26 valued at -12.90c/gal. EBOB cracks continued to move up, with Sep'26 firming from $42.30/bbl to $43.25/bbl, and there was Q4'26 selling at $23.50/bbl. Sep/Oct'26 traded up to $130.00/mt where it found selling from a major. Sep'26 E/W fell from -$20.80/bbl to -$21.80/bbl with Sep'26 cracks and 92/MOPJ’s seeing better sellside interest. Sep/Oct'26 also went better offered down to $5.30/bbl.

Another mixed afternoon in naphtha, with MOC quiet and pockets of one-way flow through the day. NWE naphtha initially firmed from the morning, with Sep'26 cracks moving from -$3.30/bbl to -$3.05/bbl before selling off to -$3.90/bbl and ending around -$3.70/bbl, while the Sep/Oct'26 roll fell to $0.1/bbl and Q1'27 firmed slightly from -$6.20/bbl to -$6.10/bbl. Spreads were mixed, with Sep/Oct'26 range-bound around $19.50/mt-$20.50/mt, while Oct/Nov'26 came off from $27.00/mt to $25.75/mt and Dec/Jan'27 firmed to $11.50/mt. E/W held supported in the front, with Sep'26 moving from $55.00/mt to $56.00/mt, Oct'26 around $47.50/mt and Nov'26 around $47.00/mt. MOPJ was illiquid on front cracks into the late afternoon, but Cal'27 traded at -$4.65/bbl. Spreads were better bid earlier before easing, with Sep/Oct'26 up to $28.00/mt, Oct/Nov'26 from $27.25/mt to $26.50/mt and Dec/Jan'27 at $16.25/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads softened into close, with Sep/Oct'26 FEI trading down to $35.00/mt having reached a top of $37.00/mt, and Oct/Nov'26 closed the afternoon trading at $26.50/mt. There was also some deferred buying of Q4/1 FEI at $63.00/mt, up from yesterday’s closing level of $58.00/mt. Q4'26 LST/FEI traded down from -$311.00/mt to -$312.50/mt, and Oct'26 LST/FEI closed the afternoon trading at -$339.00/mt, having traded at -$333.00/mt to start the day. To begin the afternoon there was a size buyer of Sep/Oct'26 FEI/CP at $165.00/mt, that eventually weakened to $161.25/mt. There was a buyer of the Cal'27 Pronap at -$137.50/mt, and the Q1/2'27 pronap roll was trading at $15.00/mt. LST spreads had better selling today, with Oct/Nov'26 trading at -0.25c/gal and -0.375c/gal, and Sep/Oct'26 got sold at -0.125c/gal. In Butane, quiet again, but there was some buying of Sep/Oct'26 C4 ENT at 0.25c/gal, and Oct/Nov'26 traded at 0.625c/gal, 0.125c stronger than yesterday’s closing level.