Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Falls to $95.32/bbl
Brent falls; US-Iran talks may resume. IEA sees lower supply & demand; China imports dip, Philippines seeks waiver extension
The Jun’26 Brent futures contract has fallen this afternoon, from $99.13/bbl at 12:56 BST to $95.32/bbl at 17:22 BST (time of writing).
In the news, US and Iranian negotiators may return to Islamabad this week to continue talks aimed at ending the Middle Eastern war. This follows the collapse of weekend negotiations, which led Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. Reuters sources have indicated that talks could resume as early as the end of this week and that a proposal has been shared with the US and Iran for their delegations to return. Elsewhere, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that global oil supply will decrease this year due to Middle East conflicts disrupting exports; meanwhile, the agency forecasted that demand would decline. This marks a reversal from earlier growth forecasts. In the Philippines, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin confirmed that the nation has asked the US to extend its 1-month waiver on the purchase of Russian oil on tankers; the waiver expired on 11 April. According to Garin, the Philippines is awaiting a response. In China, crude oil imports in March (~11.8mb/d) have decreased by 2.8% when compared to the year prior. China's seaborne crude imports in March remained steady at 10.5mb/d y/y, with inventories increasing by 34mb. Cargoes from the Middle East were loaded in January and February, so March imports were not impacted by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Jun/Jul) and 6-month (Jun/Dec) Brent futures spreads are at $4.64/bbl and $14.11/bbl, respectively.
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