Mita Chaturvedi
The M1 (Jul'26) Brent futures jumped from just over $100/bbl on 08 May to open above $104/bbl on 11 May, rising to a high of $105.97/bbl, which ultimately met resistance....
The contract now stands slightly weaker at $103.45/bbl at 11:13 BST (time of writing). Oil's initial jump stemmed from US President Donald Trump calling Iran's response to a US peace proposal "totally unacceptable" in a Truth Social post on Sunday. Tehran's formal response, sent via Pakistani mediators, included an immediate, permanent end to the war (including in Lebanon), lifting the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of US sanctions on Iran, alongside a postponement of nuclear talks. Iranian President Masoud Pezhekian said, in a post on X, that the nation will "never bow" its heads "before the enemy and if talk of dialogue or negotiation arises, it does not mean surrender or retreat.” Meanwhile, three tankers carrying crude oil exited the Strait of Hormuz with their trackers switched off last week and on Sunday, as per Kpler. One of these was loaded with Iraqi crude and is bound for Vietnam. Japan is also set to receive its first crude oil from Central Asia, as a tanker carrying Azerbaijani oil is reported to arrive in Japan as early as this Tuesday. US producer DiamondBack Energy bought put options for nearly $70 million to sell WTI/Brent for up to 255kb/d at -$41.67/bbl in Q2'26 and up to 290kb/d at -$42.76/bbl in Q3 2026, as per the company's quarterly filings. This bet could pay off if the US bans oil export, which the Trump administration has so far said it will not do. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jul/Aug'26 and Jul/Jan'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $4.04/bbl and $17.27/bbl, respectively.