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Basis Risk

Risk from differences between physical and derivative prices.

Basis risk is the risk that a hedge will not perfectly offset the exposure it was designed to protect against because the price of the hedging instrument and the price of the underlying asset do not move in exact correlation. It arises when there are differences between the physical commodity or financial exposure and the futures contract, swap, or benchmark used for hedging. These differences may relate to location, timing, product quality, currency, or market liquidity.

In commodity and energy markets, basis risk is particularly important because physical products are often priced against regional benchmarks that can diverge from the settlement price of exchange-traded derivatives. For example, a gas supplier may hedge exposure using a benchmark futures contract, but local supply disruptions or transportation constraints could cause the physical market price to move differently from the futures market. As a result, the hedge may only partially protect against losses.

Effective management of basis risk is essential for trading firms, producers, consumers, and financial institutions, as unmanaged basis movements can significantly affect profitability, cash flow, and hedge performance.