James Brodie
Head of Learning & Development, Flux
Precious Metals Decline, Worst Month for Microsoft Since 2000, S&P500 Gamma Collapse
Gold, silver and Bitcoin extend losses as AI drives market divergence, while sentiment remains stretched and volatility risks rise.
Precious metals continue their bear market with gold -29%, silver -53% and Bitcoin also down 54% from their respective highs.
The global gold-backed ETFs posted -38.3 tonnes in outflows last week, the largest weekly outflow since September 2022.
Meanwhile Russell 2000 growth stocks (IWO), Real estate (XLRE) and regional banks (KRE) all breaking out higher on the monthly charts.
Strong secondary U.S. data with JOLTS job openings at 7.59 mio (estimate 7.3mio), and better than expected Dallas Fed. While Japan’s Tankan jumped this morning, manufacturing jumping to 22 from 17. We have global PMIs today (ISM in US).
White House officially lifts export controls on Anthropic’s Fable 5 & Mythos 5 AI models.
The NAS100 just closed out Q2 +27.5% its best quarter since gaining 30% in Q2 2020. Worst month for Microsoft since 2000, best quarter ever for semis ("chipmakers"). So AI CapEx spenders are punished, while AI CapEx sellers rewarded
The US Equity Sentiment Indicator has surged to 2.0 - the second-highest reading since 2021, just before the 2022 bear market - combining 9 measures of institutional, retail, and foreign investor positioning into a single score where readings above 1.0 have historically flagged near-term risk. This extreme level has now persisted for several consecutive weeks, a degree of sustained stretched positioning rarely seen over the past decade. Beneath the surface, a telling divergence is forming: retail investors are growing increasingly optimistic while institutional investors have quietly been reducing exposure, particularly in U.S. Tech. (Goldman Sachs)
S&P 500 gamma has collapsed from record highs to deeply negative territory: Gamma has swung from +$22 billion, one of the highest readings since 2021, to -$5 billion, one of the fastest reversals on record. Gamma measures how much market makers must buy or sell in stock futures to hedge their options positions. When gamma is positive, market makers act as a stabilizing force, buying dips and selling rallies.
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