James Brodie
Head of Learning & Development, Flux
Lowering Payroll Data Expectations, K-Shaped Economy, Oracle Rally
Payrolls seen weaker; Fed urges calm. Dollar softer. US jobs strain, trucking strong. UK retail bright spot. Nikkei up on stimulus.
With last weeks delayed payroll data set to be released on Wednesday Fed members are already lowering expectations (median estimate +70k, high +135k & low -10k, with 4.4% unemployment).
FED's Miran: we are seeing some signs of stress in the job market and NEC director Kevin Hassett: should expect slightly lower jobs numbers - Hassett: lower jobs numbers shouldn't trigger panic.
Shanghai futures exchange adjusts margin ratios, price limits for contracts including copper, gold, silver. Accounting for some light selling overnight.
Dollar index fell yesterday -0.5% in an otherwise quiet day.
The K-shaped economy - US labor market weakens: multiple jobholders hit record 9.3 million, above GFC levels.
While trucking demand continues to boom, particularly in the Midwest (not ports). Bank of America's own measure of trucking activity confirms the uptick in the ISMs. (Chart 1, BofA global research, Bloomberg)
UK green shoots amid poor employment and inflation data. BRC survey suggests retailers had a better January, which the BRC attributes to New Year sales.
Oracle rallied 9.6%, now down just 55% from the highs.
Alphabet seeking to raise about $15 billion from us bond sale.
Chinese treasury holdings continue to fall (Bloomberg)
US rents fall 1.4% YoY for 32nd straight month. Renting is now cheaper than mortgages across all top 50 metros.
Nikkei up another 2.2% today. 6.1% in 2 days on more expected stimulus.
Uranium rallies 6.2% on the day.
Data today - US retail sales, ADP & employment cost index
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