James Brodie
S&P nudges back towards its all-time high, natural gas surges again, and Silver had two 4 sigma moves yesterday, trading up and down 14% in a matter of hours.
So an asset trading $96 on Friday, traded at $117.7 yesterday, on no major news, this is classic manic buying and rabid retail behaviour. The trend is still higher but as history tells us, when the sell-off comes, it will be sharp. Trailing stops. (Chart 1, Silver long term, Bloomberg)
G10 economic behaviour is picking up (led by U.S.) (Chart 1, LSEG DataStream, Yardeni Research).
Trump increases tariffs on South Korea for autos, lumber, pharma, and all other reciprocal tariffs, from 15% to 25%.
Bad developments in private credit:
Global investors are rushing into Brazilian stocks: Brazilian stocks recorded +$2.3 billion in foreign inflows so far in January, the most in a single month since December 2023. This is more than DOUBLE the prior 7 months combined.
UnitedHealth stock falls over -8% after a new report says the US will hold payments to private Medicare plans flat next year.
Japan 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate Rises to Record High
Golds largest drawdown last decade was just 22% vs: Bitcoin -82%, Nasdaq -36% & S&P 500 -27%. FWIW!
USDJPY vs interest rate differentials show how dramatic the Yen selling has become. Crowded trade (Chart 3, Bloomberg)
Data today: US consumer confidence