James Brodie
Head of Learning & Development, Flux
Weak Payroll Data, Bangladesh Fuel Rationing, US Recession?
US payrolls miss, unemployment rises; yields climb on inflation fears as risk assets fall, recession odds rise and retail keeps buying.
Friday’s payrolls were weaker than expected with -92k jobs lost (estimate +59k) with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising from 4.3% to 4.4%.
The were also more than 60k of negative revisions. 2-year bond yields initially fell 5bp on slowdown fears but have jumped 7bp today, new cycle highs on the inflationary fears from energy prices.
Polymarket now prices 41% chance of a US recession this year. For now, though yields are rising on inflationary pressures. But when bonds rise (yields fall) then it turns from inflation trade to recession trade.
Nikkei falls -5.2%, Kospi -6%, Gold -1.5% as hedge funds exit risk, but S&P futures down just 1.3%, the market is already discussing when will Trump backdown and declare a ‘victory’. Dangerous.
Price Controls Arrive: South Korea, Taiwan Impose Fuel Price Cap
Bangladesh announced fuel rationing to stop panic buying and all universities will be closed as part of emergency measures to conserve fuel amid a worsening energy crisis.
Retail just keeps buying. February was the 5th-strongest month on record for individual investor equity purchases. Retail investors have now purchased stocks for 26 consecutive months. By comparison, the 2020-2022 period saw 29 straight months of buying. Furthermore, average daily retail options volumes in 2026 are now +14% above 2025 levels.
Data this week:
Monday – U.S. consumer inflation expectations (old data considering!)
Tuesday – Australian consumer & business confidence. US existing home sales.
Wednesday – U.S. CPI for February, mortgage applications
Thursday – Weekly jobless claims
Friday – UK GDP & IP, EZ IP, US PCE price index, JOLTS & Michigan consumer confidence.
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