Jorge Montepeque
Head of Benchmarking, Flux
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Quarterly Volumes Review – Q3 2025
Oil-derivatives trading fell year on year in Q3, signalling a shift toward longer-term, fundamentals-led positioning.
In this quarterly review We document a pronounced decline in traded oil-derivatives volumes to 232 bn bbls, versus 258 bn bbls in the same period a year prior, despite broadly stable open interest, and interpret this as evidence of a shift toward longer-duration, fundamentals-anchored speculative positioning, and away from headline driven reactive position taking.
an impact-probability model of Trump’s Truth Social posts combined with a structural VAR, we show that informational shocks which previously generated material increases in trading activity largely ceased to elicit a comparable response in Q3. Alongside the mainstreaming of sizeable forward supply surpluses and a notable dislocation in Dubai swaps, we conclude that Q3 represents a temporary episode of lower trading intensity within an otherwise robust expansion of global oil-derivatives markets, with volumes projected to resume their upward trend into 2026-27.
The Officials publish outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
We invite you to read our reports, which are published twice a day, reflecting closing values at 16:30 Singapore time (SGT) and at 16:30 London time (GMT/BST). For any comments, please reach out to us through the emails provided in the signed documents.
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