Flux Markets | Quarterly Volumes Review – Q3 2025 Skip to main content

The Officials reports are now published exclusively on officialsbenchmarks.com. Current subscribers to the Officials will be able to log in there automatically to access their content.

Quarterly Volumes Review – Q3 2025

Oil-derivatives trading fell year on year in Q3, signalling a shift toward longer-term, fundamentals-led positioning.
Published: December 1, 2025
Written by:
Jorge Montepeque

Jorge Montepeque

Head of Benchmarking, Flux
Jorge Montepeque
,
Will Cunliffe

Will Cunliffe

Research Analyst, The Officials
Will Cunliffe
,
Edward Hayden-Briffett

Edward Hayden-Briffett

Research Analyst, The Officials
Edward Hayden-Briffett
and
Spyridon Kokas

Spyridon Kokas

Research Analyst, The Officials
Spyridon Kokas
Share

In this quarterly review We document a pronounced decline in traded oil-derivatives volumes to 232 bn bbls, versus 258 bn bbls in the same period a year prior, despite broadly stable open interest, and interpret this as evidence of a shift toward longer-duration, fundamentals-anchored speculative positioning, and away from headline driven reactive position taking.

an impact-probability model of Trump’s Truth Social posts combined with a structural VAR, we show that informational shocks which previously generated material increases in trading activity largely ceased to elicit a comparable response in Q3. Alongside the mainstreaming of sizeable forward supply surpluses and a notable dislocation in Dubai swaps, we conclude that Q3 represents a temporary episode of lower trading intensity within an otherwise robust expansion of global oil-derivatives markets, with volumes projected to resume their upward trend into 2026-27.

The Officials publish outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.

We invite you to read our reports, which are published twice a day, reflecting closing values at 16:30 Singapore time (SGT) and at 16:30 London time (GMT/BST). For any comments, please reach out to us through the emails provided in the signed documents.

More News

Slow Motion

Brent, spreads and cracks stay mostly bearish; support levels under pressure as momentum softens. Downside favoured, except gasoline E/W.
9 page report
2 June 2026

Brent softens amid conflicting headlines

The drop in prices came with US President Donald Trump saying talks with Iran were ongoing. President Trump also said, in a Truth Social...
4 page report
2 June 2026

S&P Reaches Highest Level On Record, Negotiations Break Down, Sulfur Prices Double

Stocks hit records on AI mania and crowded positioning, while oil, copper and refinery stress signal inflation risks.
2 June 2026