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Quarterly Volumes Review – Q3 2025

Oil-derivatives trading fell year on year in Q3, signalling a shift toward longer-term, fundamentals-led positioning.
Published: December 1, 2025
Written by:
Jorge Montepeque

Jorge Montepeque

Head of Benchmarking, Flux
Jorge Montepeque
,
Will Cunliffe

Will Cunliffe

Research Analyst, The Officials
Will Cunliffe
,
Edward Hayden-Briffett

Edward Hayden-Briffett

Research Analyst, The Officials
Edward Hayden-Briffett
and
Spyridon Kokas

Spyridon Kokas

Research Analyst, The Officials
Spyridon Kokas
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In this quarterly review We document a pronounced decline in traded oil-derivatives volumes to 232 bn bbls, versus 258 bn bbls in the same period a year prior, despite broadly stable open interest, and interpret this as evidence of a shift toward longer-duration, fundamentals-anchored speculative positioning, and away from headline driven reactive position taking.

an impact-probability model of Trump’s Truth Social posts combined with a structural VAR, we show that informational shocks which previously generated material increases in trading activity largely ceased to elicit a comparable response in Q3. Alongside the mainstreaming of sizeable forward supply surpluses and a notable dislocation in Dubai swaps, we conclude that Q3 represents a temporary episode of lower trading intensity within an otherwise robust expansion of global oil-derivatives markets, with volumes projected to resume their upward trend into 2026-27.

The Officials publish outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.

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