$90/bbl resistance in Brent

According to Yemen’s government, Houthi militants attacked the Egyptian-owned Tihamah in the Bab al-Mandeb, killing four crew members and two rescuers. It marks the first reported fatalities from a Houthi attack on commercial shipping since the Iran war began in February. The US separately struck the Panama-flagged Vela Nova in the Gulf of Oman, using two Hellfire missiles after Washington claimed the vessel was attempting to breach the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Bloomberg reports ADNOC is offering to transport Iraqi crude, including Basrah, through the Strait of Hormuz using its “shuttling” method, helping Iraq maintain exports to Asia despite ongoing disruptions. SOMO is also offering discounts of up to $30/bbl below benchmark prices to encourage Hormuz transit. The IEA sees 2026 oil demand falling 1.6mb/d, 510kb/d more than July’s forecast, as high fuel prices weigh on consumption. July supply rose 2.4mb/d to 101.5mb/d, but remains 6.3mb/d below year-ago levels, with 8.3mb/d of Gulf output offline. Libya’s National Oil Corporation said all fires at fuel storage tanks at the Zawiya oil complex had been brought under control. API data showed a 9.1mb build in crude, with gasoline and distillate inventories falling by 1.5 mb and 596kb, respectively. A drone attack targeted Libya’s Zawiya oil complex, causing a fire and the collapse of a gasoline storage tank holding around 4.5 million litres. Fires were quickly brought under control, with limited damage but temporary operational disruption. A separate drone attack also targeted the nearby Zawiya power plant, damaging its firefighting system but causing no major damage. Finally, the Oct/Nov’26 and Oct/Apr’27 Brent futures spreads are at $2.40/bbl and $9.60/bbl respectively.

This morning in Dated, we saw a paper buyer of bal Aug vs 17-28 paying up at $0.4/bbl, whilst we saw selling of 24-28 Aug DBL at $2.65/bbl. We also saw buying of 1-4 Sep 1w fly lifting $0.06/bbl in decent size and selling of 7-11 Sep 1w at $0.7/bbl. We also saw a West African refiner offering 18-25 Aug vs 7-11 Sep at $1.65/bbl. We continued to see buying of Q4'26 DFL and Q1'27 DFL from trade and bank. However saw sell-side interest in Q2'27 DFL down to $0.68/bbl, Q3'27 DFL offered $0.57/bbl and cal'27 DFL.

This morning in Brent/Dubai, there was continued selling by trade house in Oct and Q4 Brent/Dubai. The Sep Brent/Dubai traded down from $5.90/bbl to $5.40/bbl. The Dubai spreads traded range bound, but the Brent/Dubai boxes all moved lower. There was trade house selling of Sep/Oct box, which traded down from $0.15/bbl to -$0.02/bbl. Spreads and boxes behind were pretty quiet, but more bid on the whole.

Similar story to yesterday morning in VLSFO, Sep/Oct Sing opened stronger around $33.75/mt; however, real selling on Sing cracks and spreads saw Sep/Oct sell down to $32.00/mt. The Sing crack traded down from $18.25/bbl to $17.70/bbl, where it encountered real buying and bottomed out. There was little spoken in Euro 0.5 this morning; Sep/Oct traded around $23/75/mt while the Sep crack was range-bound, closing at $6.75/bbl.

Sep/Dec 380 opened higher this morning; however, as the morning went on and into the window, we saw real selling with Sep/Oct trading down to $26.00/mt before rebounding to $26.75/mt post-window. Sep 380 crack also traded lower down to -$4.35/bbl pre-window before trading back up to -$4.05/bbl. There was real selling on 380 E/W, and the barge crack was also stronger at -$10.60/bbl, which put further pressure on the E/W, which traded around $41.50/mt. Sep/Oct barges were rangebound trading between $12.00/mt and $12.25/mt.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were mixed overall, with buying in Sep/Dec while Sep/Oct and Oct/Nov turned better offered into the end window, Sep/Oct trading down from $6.85/bbl to $6.50/bbl last. Regrade saw aggressive selling, moving from -$1.25/bbl down to -$2.05/bbl on kero spreads being well offered in Sep/Nov, Sep/Oct trading from $4.10/bbl down to $3.90/bbl. Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off throughout the morning, Sep/Dec from $175/mt down to $168.50/mt, while Oct cracks weakened to $69.25/bbl.

This morning in gasoline, 92 MOC was balanced. The east started the morning better offered, with Sep cracks falling from $18.20/bbl to $17.80/bbl before recovering during the window. Spreads saw mixed interest, as Sep/Oct remained stable around $4.45/bbl. E/W was better bid around $12.50/bbl as EBOB cracks initially weakened from $30.80/bbl to $30.40/bbl before trading back up to $30.80/bbl. Spreads followed the same pattern, trading between $85/mt and $86/mt.

The weakness in Naphtha continued this morning. MOC was balanced, but MOPJ cracks sold off, with Sep moving from around $0.20/bbl yesterday to -$1.25/bbl, while Q4 traded down to -$2.45/bbl; prompt spreads were better offered as well, with Sep/Oct down from the mid-$25s/mt to around $21.50/mt. E/W opened lower versus yesterday as Sep sold off to $34.50/mt before recovering to $36/t, while Cal 27’ was bid at $23.75/mt. NWE naphtha followed, with Sep cracks selling off from around -$4.65/bbl yesterday to -$5.65/bbl, while prompt spreads saw real sell-side interest, with Sep/Oct down from $25/mt to $21.50/mt.

This morning in NGLs, Sep/Oct FEI traded at $27/mt where it firmed on the day. Oct/Nov FEI opened the day at $15/mt, but softened to print $13.50/mt end window. There was buyside interest on arbs, with Sep LST/CP trading at -$214/mt, and Sep ENT/FEI was lifted at -$326/mt. Post window the Q4 LST/FEI was sold at -$267/mt, the same level as last night’s close. There was deferred CP spread buying in Feb/Mar'27 at $12/mt, and the Sep CP flat price had better buyside interest on the day by Chinese. End window on screen, Sep FEI flat price was trading $685/mt.

Oil edges higher as Iran’s Mohsen Rezaei says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless the US meets Tehran’s conditions, while fresh attacks hit shipping in the Bab al-Mandab and Gulf of Oman.

Trump claims “total control” over Hormuz, despite continued disruption and sharply reduced vessel traffic through the strait.

API reports a surprise 9mb+ crude build, versus expectations for a draw, ahead of tomorrow’s official EIA inventory data.

Nikkei trades flat ahead of US CPI, while Kospi jumps ~3.5% on a semiconductor-led rally, triggering a sidecar after KOSPI 200 futures gained 5%.

Japan’s 2-year JGB yield hits a fresh high, reaching its highest level since May 1995.

North Korea fires a second short-range ballistic missile this week, again towards the Sea of Japan.

Trump reportedly weighs capital-gains tax relief, including inflation-indexing, ahead of the midterms; the idea remains a policy signal rather than legislation.

FX ranges remain tight, with the USD modestly firmer ahead of the 8:30am ET CPI release.