Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Brent Back Above $100/bbl
Brent tops $100 on US-Iran peace deal uncertainty; India refinery runs fall, Russian LNG scrutiny grows, Japan warns on Middle East risks.
The Jul’26 Brent Futures contract rallied to $100.63/bbl at 14:53 BST, before falling to $99.58/bbl at 15:36 BST. Prices have since rallied back up to $100.12/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing).
This afternoon’s rally comes as uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict continues, with Iran’s Fars news agency reporting that the unfreezing of Iran’s funds is the last major hurdle to negotiating a peace deal with the US. In the news, India’s refinery crude throughput fell 8.9% in April from the previous month to 5.23 mb/d, reflecting maintenance shutdowns and disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies. Refiners increased imports from Latin America and Africa to offset supply instability. Output also declined slightly y/y, with major facilities such as Nayara Energy’s refinery operating at reduced capacity during maintenance. The data highlights how geopolitical conflict and supply-chain disruptions are affecting one of the world’s largest oil-consuming nations. Elsewhere, a UK-sanctioned LNG tanker linked to Russia’s Arctic gas trade briefly stopped near northern Norway, raising concerns about enforcement of Western sanctions on Russian energy exports. The vessel highlights how Russia continues using restricted tankers to move LNG to willing buyers. The incident comes as the EU phases in bans on Russian LNG imports, despite record EU purchases earlier in 2026 from non-sanctioned Russian projects such as Yamal LNG. In other news, Japan maintained its view that the economy is recovering moderately, supported by improving business investment, employment and income conditions. However, the government warned that Middle East tensions and financial market volatility remain major risks. Consumer spending showed tentative improvement despite weak sentiment, while exports stayed broadly flat as shipments to the Middle East declined. Japan also reported a sharp drop in crude oil imports from the region but said alternative sourcing should replace most lost supply by June. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jul/Aug’26 spread is at $2.92/bbl and the six-month Jul/Jan’27 spread is at $14.93/bbl.
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