Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Brent Briefly Above $100/bbl
Brent oil hits $100 as US-Iran tensions rise; strikes in Hormuz, supply fears, Eni $4bn Ivory Coast boost, Santos expansion outlook rise
The Jul’26 Brent Futures contract opened $1.24/bbl higher at $97.83/bbl and rallied all morning, reaching $100.04/bbl at 09:49 BST. Prices have since softened to $99.50/bbl at 10:45 BST (time of writing).
This morning’s rally comes as uncertainty over a US-Iran peace deal grows, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying that negotiating a deal with Iran could “take a few days”. Last night the US military conducted “self-defence strikes” targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz. In the news, Eni and partners Petroci and Vitol have approved a final investment decision for Phase 3 of the Baleine oil field in Ivory Coast, significantly expanding production capacity. Output is expected to rise to 150kb/d of oil and 200 million cubic feet per day of gas, supported by a new floating production and storage unit. The project, costing about $4 Bn, is scheduled to come online within 32–36 months and will direct all gas to domestic use, boosting local power generation and industrial growth. In other news, Santos Limited is prioritising expansion of oil and gas production across Australia and overseas, including the US and Papua New Guinea, amid a strategy shift toward growth in major LNG and crude projects. The company recently began output from the Pikka oil field in Alaska and plans to ramp production significantly in the coming months, while also approving new gas infrastructure investments in Papua New Guinea. Domestically, it will focus on key Australian basins such as Beetaloo, Bedout, and the Cooper Basin to boost long-term output and profitability. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jul/Aug’26 and six-month Jul/Jan’27 spreads are at $2.99/bbl and $14.54/bbl respectively.
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