Brent briefly drops below $100/bbl; G7 agree to release diesel, crude oil

In the news, the G7 countries agreed on the release of 100mb of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves. The group said it would begin immediately and last for four months, with a front-loaded, substantial diesel release within 20 days by G7 members and partners. In other news, OPEC+ has delayed a review to help determine members' 2027 oil output quotas amid disrupted projects to expand capacity due to the US-Iran war. The review is now expected to be completed by mid-November. US President Donald Trump said that the US and South Korea have reached a trade deal which includes $8.4 billion "for an enhanced Oil ​Recovery Project", a claim that surprised a South Korean official, as per South Korea's state-sponsored Yonhap news agency, which said the agreement was limited to the joint fact sheet that Seoul and Washington released in Nov 2025. In macro news, US non-farm payrolls were up by 29,000 in September (consensus: +90,000) following a downwardly revised 133,000 rise in August. The US unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% in September. Finally, at the time of writing, the Dec/Jan'27 and Dec/Jun'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.77/bbl and $14.13/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon, in Dated Brent, we saw strong buying into the window as a trade bid cargos aggressively again, pushing the physical diff up to over $17. Pre-window, we saw buying of Balmo Oct'26 DFL up to highs of $14.35/bbl and Nov'26 DFL up to $5.32/bbl. We saw buying of 2-6 Nov 2w up to $3.60/bbl and buying of 12-16 Oct 1w pre-window. In the paper window we saw paper on the buy side of CFDs again however saw market makers hitting bids, with 12-16 Oct hit $15.65/bbl and 19-23 Oct CFD hit down to $9.15/bbl. We saw a bit of DFLs selling post-window on spreads before we found some support.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we traded in a large range. As we traded lower, there was continued trade house and bank buying of Nov'26, Dec'26 and Jan'27 Brent/Dubai. We traded in a whippy range, the Nov'26 Brent/Dubai between -$2.50/bbl and -$1.65/bbl. There was trade buying of Dubai spreads earlier in the afternoon, which traded in line with Brent spreads all day. They finished stronger, up at $3.90/bbl. The Brent/Dubai boxes were fairly quiet; the Dec/Jan'27 Brent/Dubai box was better offered by Chinese around -$0.35/bbl.

VLSFO: It was a quiet afternoon in VLSFO due to the Chinese holiday; Singapore spreads were relatively stable, while the prompt crack traded slightly higher. Nov/Dec'26 traded 75c lower over the course of the afternoon, from $33.75/mt to $33.00/mt, where it traded in the window; Dec/Jan'27 traded down from $25.00/mt to $24.50/mt post-window. Nov'26 Sing crack was choppy this afternoon but ultimately traded up from $22.90/bbl to $23.15/bbl. Euro 0.5% spreads struggled for liquidity this afternoon, with Nov/Dec'26 consistently trading at $10.00/mt while Dec/Jan'27 traded around $9.00/mt. Prompt Euro crack continued to lack any real support and consistently sold off from -$0.95/bbl to -$1.85/bbl.

HSFO: 380 spreads saw a little better liquidity, Nov/Dec'26 traded down from $36.25/mt to $35.50/mt and traded at this level in the window, post window it rallied back up to $36.75/mt, Dec/Jan'27 traded at $22.00/mt for the whole afternoon. Nov'26 380 crack saw less volume than expected and traded slightly higher from $0.85/bbl to $1.10/bbl; it traded at $1.00/bbl in the window. The 3.5% barge complex was the most illiquid of all the curves, particularly in spreads; Nov/Dec'26 traded at $16.00/mt in the window and Dec/Jan'27 at $11.00/mt. Nov'26 Barge crack saw better volume and was range-bound, trading between -$11.75/bbl and -$11.50/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spread selling continued lower on lower IPE, trading from $5.75/bbl down to $5.00/bbl. Front E/W chased higher initially, lifted to -$77.00/mt, before trading back down to -$83.00/mt offered last. Regrade shifted lower, with Dec'26 hit down to -$2.75/bbl, while Nov/Dec'26 kero traded down to $4.60/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off, with Nov/Dec'26 trading from $50.00/mt down to $43.75/mt, while Dec'26 cracks sold off from $72.50/bbl down to $69.70/bbl. European jet diffs also weakened, with Q1'27 trading down to $126.00/mt.

Choppy afternoon in gasoline as EBOB cracks gave back early gains, with RBBRs leading the way lower. Nov RBBRs traded up to highs of $33.39/bbl early afternoon before selling off to $32.13/bbl at the end of the window, dragging the Nov arb from highs of 1.30c/gal to 0.50c/gal. EBOB followed, with Nov cracks coming off from $32.89/bbl to lows of $31.43/bbl before the EBOB MOC flat price was well bid in the window, lifting cracks back to $31.93/bbl at the end of the window, and Nov/Dec easing from $77.00/mt to $75.00/mt. Further out, the Q1'27 EBOB crack dipped to $22.44/bbl mid-afternoon before recovering to $23.24/bbl, Q1 RBBRs bounced back to $32.96/bbl, and the Q1'27 arb was unchanged at 23.14c/gal, while the Nov/Dec crack roll eased to $6.14/bbl. In the east, Nov E/W firmed to -$4.15/bbl before slipping back to -$4.50/bbl at the end of the window, while 92 cracks were valued at $27.43/bbl at the end of the window.

This afternoon, naphtha was soft, with MOC offered and Brent pushing spreads higher post-window, while cracks sold off and backend crack rolls softened. NWE naphtha weakened from the morning, with Nov'26 cracks falling from around -$5.35/bbl to -$5.75/bbl post-window; Q1'27 eased to -$6.50/bbl and Q1/Q2'27 to $1.70/bbl from $1.80/bbl. Spreads were firmer, with Bal/Nov'26 up to $30.50/mt and Nov/Dec'26 at $28.00/mt. E/W was softer in the front, with Nov'26 down from $67.00/mt to $66.25/mt, Q1'27 and Cal'27 firm at $48.50/mt and $36.00/mt, respectively, and boxes bid, albeit illiquid. MOPJ remained thin: Nov'26 cracks were around $1.50/bbl on a flat-price basis and Q1'27 traded at -$0.95/bbl, while bal Oct/Nov'26 traded up to $30.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 rose to $29.00/mt, Dec/Jan'27 finished at $27.50/mt and Dec/Mar'27 at $79.25/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, Nov'26 FEI opened down, printing at $852.00/mt before drifting back to $858.00/mt during the European window. Combining this relatively sideways move in FEI with a stronger MOPJ this afternoon, FEI/MOPJs were relatively weaker this afternoon, printing down at -$35.00/mt versus the -$33.00/mt they were trading at pre-window. There was some Oil Major interest in long-end FEI spreads, with Oct/Dec'26 27 FEI trading at -$5.50/mt.

LST/FEI was illiquid this afternoon, with Nov'26 LST/FEI trading sideways between -$388 and -$389. This drove November'26 LST prices in a similar trend to FEI, trading down with crude into the US open, at around 89.625c/gal before rallying to 90.75c/gal.

Butane markets continue to climb as C4 ENT traded at $1.4/gal, up from $1.38/gal pre-window. However, C4 ENT spreads did not really trade, with Dec/Jan'27 ENT trading at 3.50c/gal, unchanged from the previous session close. Overall, a quiet afternoon, with prices following crude moves.