Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
Brent Briefly Falls Below $100/bbl
Brent briefly falls below $100/bbl as Trump postpones military strikes; China's state-owned refiners considers buying Iranian crude on water
Published: March 23, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu
4 page report
This morning Brent crude futures initially traded up to highs of $114.38/bbl before collapsing to $96.52/bbl following Trump's Truth Social post about postponing military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure over a 5-day period amid candid negotiations.
Previously, the market was focused on President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on reopening the Strait, with both sides exchanging threats of further escalation. Trump has threatened strikes on Iran’s power infrastructure, while Tehran vowed retaliation against regional water desalination plants. In other news, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 oil price forecasts, citing prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz as the largest-ever supply shock to global crude. The bank now expects Brent to average $85/bbl up from $77 previously. China’s state-owned refiners are reportedly exploring purchases of Iranian crude on water following the easing of US sanctions. However, there remains uncertainty, and without clarity on key details, it is unlikely that the buyers will change. A Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, one of the country’s key oil export hubs, has damaged a fuel tank, according to local authorities. Slovenia on Sunday temporarily limited fuel purchases to tackle shortages at the pump, caused in part by cross-border fuelling and stockpiling due to the Iran war, where fuelling at individual service stations has been restricted to 50 litres per day for private vehicle and 200 litres for companies and other priority users such as farmers. According to the US Department of Energy, Shell, Trafigura, and Marathon were the top three bidders for crude from the US SPR, in addition to BP, Gunvor, Mercuria, Vitol, and Energy Transfer. Finally, the May/Jun and May/Nov Brent futures spreads are at $4.65/bbl and $23.10/bbl respectively.
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