Vincent Wu
Research Associate, Flux
CFTC Weekly: Long/Short Strategy
Money managers accelerate Brent buying; funds risk-off in WTI; specs cover shorts in Heating Oil
Published: March 23, 2026
Written by:
Vincent Wu
13 page report
In the week ending 17 Mar, money managers accelerated their purchases in Brent crude futures, with long positions rising by 30mb (+8%) over the week.
- Interestingly, outright long positions still remain levels seen in the week ending 24 Feb, prior to the conflict. Speculators were positioned long in anticipation of the conflict, and profit taking flows have limited the upside in the short-term. As positions rebalanced, there is capacity for a renewed bullish push, provided that geopolitical tensions persist with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. Meanwhile, short positions declined for a fifth consecutive week, falling by 11mb (-14%). The long:short ratio is now at the 75th percentile for all weeks since 2013.
- In contrast, money managers were risk-off in WTI futures, trimming both long and short positions. Shorts declined for a third consecutive week. Given the larger proportional decline in shorts, the long:short ratio surpassed 2:1 for the first time since July 2025.
- After the correction on 09 Mar, Brent futures has steadily climbed higher over the week, closing above $100 with this level acting as psychological support. The risk premium continues to build amid escalations from both sides, with no solution or ceasefire in sight. The WTI/Brent spread has widened below -$10/bbl, reflecting SPR hedge selling flows in the front and the greater sensitivity of Brent to geopolitical headlines.
- In ICE gasoil futures, money managers had a risk-off week, trimming both long and short positions.
- In RBOB futures, money manager shorts declined for the seventh consecutive week, and the ninth in ten weeks. At 4.7mb, short positions are at 2-year lows, rendering prices vulnerable to a downside correction.
- In ULSD Heating Oil, short positions saw a significant decline for the third consecutive week, falling by 4.5mb (-30%). This marks a 66% drop in outright short positions over the past three weeks, which suggests that the recent bullish trend in Heating Oil was largely driven by short covering flows.
- Funds were net long in Natural Gas (Henry Hub) over the week, with long positionings increasing by 5%, and shorts declining by 4%.
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