Brent climbs above $94/bbl on renewed US-Iran tensions

In the news, the number of offers for Iranian oil cargoes to China for September and October delivery has declined relative to July-August, according to Reuters. Still, Iran has said that its response to any new US threats would be "devastating" following the latter's threat to impose its toughest ever economic hit on Tehran. In Venezuela, tankers are having to wait up to 30 days to load oil due to ageing infrastructure, power outages and issues with quality; oil port terminals will reportedly impose a de facto export cap on the country's crude production. The US EPA has planned to extend its 01 Sep renewable fuel standard, which may potentially pressure prices for RINs. Still, the agency intends to issue decisions on pending requests for small refinery waivers by the end of August. India's Petroleum and Natural Gas ​Regulatory Board has approved the laying of 1,800 km of LPG pipeline infrastructure, estimated to have cost 70 billion rupees ($731.49 million). Finally, at the time of writing, the Oct/Nov'26 and Oct/Apr'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.75/bbl and $11.27/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated Brent, we continued to see selling pre-window with Balmo Aug DFL trading down to -$0.28/bbl and selling of 24-28 Aug dbl and 1w. However, the market found support in the window with 4 cargos being lifted across Midland and Forties, 3 from a major and 1 from a refiner. In the paper window, 24-28 Aug CFD traded up to -$0.2/bbl and 7-11 Sep CFD at $2.55/bbl. Post window, 24-28 Aug 1w traded up to -$0.65/bbl, whilst Sep DFL was bid up to $2.8/bbl on screen and Oct DFL up $2.75/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai, there was large selling down the curve. There was large selling of Q1, Q2 and Cal 27 tenors in Brent/Dubai off product flows. There was also fund selling of Dec and Jan Brent/Dubai. The Sep Brent/Dubai traded down from $3.3/bbl to around $3/bbl. The Dubai spreads traded rangebound, the Sep/Oct dub spr trading between $3.9/bbl and $4.1/bbl. There was continued major and trade selling of Brent/Dubai boxes. The Oct/Nov Brent/Dubai box was around -$0.67/bbl, the Nov/Dec box around -$0.14/bbl and the Q1/Q2 box at $0.84/bbl.

In VLSFO this afternoon, Sep/Oct Sing 0.5 traded at similar levels to this morning, between $34.00/mt and $34.50/mt on relatively low liquidity. Sep Sing cracks were bid this afternoon, trading up to $18.75/bbl in the window. Euro 0.5 spreads were offered this afternoon; Sep/Oct Euro sold off from $26.50/mt to $24,50/mt where it is currently valued. Sep Euro cracks traded between $6.00/bbl and $6.20/bbl.

In HSFO, Sep/Oct 380 traded slightly lower this afternoon, selling down from $38.00/mt to $37.25/mt and then bouncing up to $37.50/mt post window. Sep 380 crack continued to sell off into the afternoon; it traded down from -$0.50/bbl at the beginning of the window to -$0.75/bbl by window close. 3.5% Barge spreads continued to be offered in the early afternoon; Sep/Oct traded down to $9.00/mt but was then bid up, closing out the afternoon at $10.00/mt. Sep Barge crack traded at similar levels to this morning, closing out the window at -$11.65/bbl. Sep 380 E/W traded down to $71.00/mt during the window.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were mixed, with some Sep/Nov selling at $12.15/bbl, while Nov/Jan saw buying at lower levels. Front E/W sold off, with Sep trading from -$73/mt down to -$74/mt, while Q4 offers stepped down to -$61/mt. Regrade saw buying step up to -$1.20/bbl in Oct, while Q1 was well offered at $2.60/bbl.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied initially before coming off into the window, with Sep/Dec trading from $55.75/mt up to $57.50/mt, then back down to $54.50/mt. Euro jet sold off in the front, with Sep trading down to $41.40/mt, while Dec traded down to $108/mt. Heating oil spreads were range-bound, while HOGOs strengthened, with the Sep HOGO swap trading from 30.00c/gal up to 31.00c/gal.

This afternoon in Gasoline, EBOB MOC was better bid with EBOB crack continuing to price higher – seeing Sep crack trade up to $36.20/bbl equivalent at the end of the window. RBBRs were strong this afternoon, seeing Sep arb price higher from the lows of -1c/gal to 0.70c/gal at the end of the window, with selling in Q2 27 from trade at 32/gal.  Sep/Oct EBOB continues to rally, finding buying up to $107/mt. The gasoline E/W trailed lower in Sep, trading down to -$17.10/bbl, with Q1 finding some buying at -$2.70, with Q1 and Q4 cracks better offered in the east this afternoon.

This afternoon in naphtha was firmer overall, with MOC quiet but better offered. NWE naphtha stayed supported, with Sep cracks moving up to around -$4.25/bbl in the window before easing to -$4.50/bbl post-window, while Q4 was around -$5.20/bbl. Spreads were steady, with Sep/Oct around $24.50/mt and Nov/Dec at $21/mt. E/W held well bid, with Sep trading at $48/mt, the Sep/Oct box moving up to $3/mt, and Q1 27’ bid up from $34/mt to $36.50/mt post-window. MOPJ was firmer on cracks, with Sep moving from around $0.80/bbl this morning to $1/bbl post-window, while spreads were slightly stronger, with Sep/Oct around $27/mt and Oct/Nov around $26.50/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, Sep LST/FEI found some support at the trading level of -$370/mt, before strengthening slightly into close to settle at -$368/mt. Q1 LST/FEI was trading back down to -$312/mt, before finishing the afternoon printing at -$308.5/mt. There was also a buyer of the Jan-Feb arb strip at -$254/mt. In internationals, Sep/Oct FEI was trading at $33/mt across the afternoon, and there was buying of Oct/Nov at $24/mt. Sep FEI/CP was getting bought by importers at $147/mt, and there was some buyside interest on the Sep CP flat price with it. LST spreads had better buy-side interest today, with Sep/Oct trading at -0.375c/gal and -0.25c/gal, and Q2/3 27 trading at 0.25c/gal, before closing the afternoon at 0.375c/gal. Also had good buying of Oct/Dec LST at -1c/gal from US trade. Butane was particularly illiquid today, as has been the case for the week, but there was some selling of spreads to begin the afternoon. Sep/Oct was sold at -0.625c/gal, and Oct/Nov was trading at 0.875c/gal. There was also some small sell-side interest in Sep C4 ENT flat price.