Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Brent Climbs to $69.39/bbl
Shell faces production shortfall, OPEC+ production declines in January, PDVSA reverses production cuts
The Apr’26 Brent futures contract rallied from $67.71/bbl at 14:17 GMT to $68.87/bbl at 14:49 GMT. Prices continued climbing in the afternoon to $69.39/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, Shell faces a potential production shortfall of 350kb/d – 800kb/d by 2035 as maturing fields struggle to meet its output targets, Reuters analysts say. The company’s reserve life has fallen to under eight years, well below peers such as Exxon and TotalEnergies, increasing pressure to pursue acquisitions or major exploration successes. Years of restrained investment have tightened Shell’s resource base. While near-term gaps may be covered by projects in the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and Africa, analysts warn production could decline sharply after 2028 without significant new assets. In other news, OPEC’s oil production declined in January, dropping by about 60kb/d to 28.34 mb/d, mainly because Nigeria and Libya cut output, with Nigeria showing the largest decrease. Despite increased production from countries including Venezuela and Iraq, overall output remained lower than in December. Iran’s crude supply also fell further amid US sanctions. OPEC+ paused planned output increases for Q1’26 due to concerns about excess supply. Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA has reversed most of the production cuts it ordered earlier at its operations and joint ventures in the Orinoco Belt, lifting crude output in that main oil-producing region to just over 500kb/d, more than 100kb/d higher than in early January. This boost has helped Venezuela’s total oil production climb close to 1mb/d after earlier reductions tied to a strict US blockade. Finally, the front-month Apr/May’26 and 6-month Apr/Oct’26 spreads are at $0.68/bbl and $2.69/bbl respectively.
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