Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Climbs to $97.77/bbl
Brent nears $98 as Russian exports surge, Iraq reroutes crude, and inventories tighten before summer demand.
The Aug’26 Brent futures contract briefly dipped to $96.86/bbl at 15:00 BST before rising once again to $97.77/bbl as of the time of writing at 17:06 BST.
In the news, Russia has increased its oil exports through western ports by 15% m/m in May, as refinery outages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks force Moscow to export more crude oil. In May, exports from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk reached 2.5mb/d, up from 2.2mb/d in April. This is the highest export volume from these ports since September 2025, when Ukrainian drone strikes also halted Russian refinery operations. Related, Russia's oil exports to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline returned to normal levels of 165kb/d in May; in April, Hungary and Slovakia received only 55kb/d. Slovakia and Hungary resumed receiving crude oil via the pipeline on 23 April after a months-long outage. May marks the first complete month of oil delivery since the pipeline's restart. Elsewhere, Iraq aims to triple its crude oil exports through Kurdistan to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan within three months. The Iraqi government has approved a plan to increase crude shipments to Ceyhan and other international markets via the Mediterranean, compensating for the loss of exports caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. In other news, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon predicts consumer behaviour may shift in the second half of 2026 if inflation rises, driven by higher oil prices. "You can see some economic data in the next six months that shifts the sentiment," he said. "But for the moment, that's not happening." Meanwhile, the head of the IEA's oil industry and markets division warned that global oil inventories could reach critical levels before the peak summer demand if stock depletion continues at the current rate. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $2.60/bbl and $12.22/bbl, respectively.
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