Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Declines to $66.99/bbl
Trump warns Iran to make deal; Iran open to talks but vows response. Chevron boosts Venezuela exports; Russia naphtha; India diesel
The Apr’26 Brent futures contract has declined this afternoon, from $67.28/bbl at 15:00 GMT to $66.99/bbl at 16:45 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, US President Trump has warned Iran that “time is running out” to reach a deal on its nuclear program amid the recent increase in US military presence. In a social media post, Trump mentioned that the “massive armada” was "moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose" toward Iran. In response, Iran’s mission to the UN has said that Tehran "stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests." However, it added that if “PUSHED”, it would defend itself and “respond like never before.” Elsewhere, Chevron is poised to boost exports of Venezuelan crude to the US to around 300kb/d in March, from 100kb/d in December and some 230kb/d thus far in February. The company has chartered around a dozen tankers to boost shipments and reduce inventories at its projects, following the US blockade and resulting in millions of barrels being stored in onshore tanks and vessels. In Russia, naphtha exports to Asia are expected to decline in January as storage volumes increase due to US sanctions affecting major buyers such as Taiwan, India, and Venezuela, prompting Moscow to explore alternative markets. Buyers have grown more cautious following Washington's sanctions on major Russian oil producers, leading sellers to store naphtha on ships or abroad, where it can be re-exported, often with unclear destinations. In other news, Indian Oil Corp’s Head of Marketing, S.P. Srivastava, announced at the India Energy Week conference that the firm expects annual diesel exports to increase significantly to as much as 5M mt from 2027, driven by the expansion of its refining capacity. According to Srivastava, the IOC is raising its annual refining capacity to 98M mt within the next year and a half from 80M mt currently. Finally, the Apr/May and Apr/Oct spreads are at $0.61/bbl and $2.07/bbl, respectively.
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