Brent Eased as Novorossiysk Resumes Operations

In the news, Russia’s main Black Sea oil port of Novorossiysk resumed operations on Sunday after suspending loadings on Friday following a drone attack. The disruption forced the port to halt crude loadings and stop accepting additional oil after storage tanks reached capacity, with one tanker leaving without loading. Operations have since resumed, with a Suezmax tanker loading Kazakh KEBCO crude from Sunday and scheduled to depart Monday, while another tanker is expected to load 80kt of KEBCO on Tuesday. The Sheskharis terminal, which handles around 700kb/d, is Novorossiysk’s main oil export facility and loads Russian Urals and Siberian Light alongside Kazakh KEBCO. Elsewhere, at least one cargo of Indian gasoline has entered Russia’s domestic market as Moscow turns to imports to ease fuel shortages caused by repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, according to Reuters sources and LSEG data. Russia has already introduced rail imports from Belarus and Kazakhstan alongside fuel export restrictions, with Deputy PM Alexander Novak also confirming plans to import oil products to support domestic supply. The Oman-flagged tanker loaded around 68Kmt of gasoline via ship-to-ship transfer at Port Said from the tanker Agni, which had loaded the cargo at India’s Vadinar port. The cargo was then discharged at Russia’s Arctic port of Vitino in early August and is now being moved by rail to domestic buyers. In China, crude throughput fell 15.8% y/y in July to 12.5mb/d, although it edged 0.3% higher m/m, marking the first monthly increase since the Iran war began. Runs remain well below pre-war levels, while weaker domestic demand and disrupted imports continue to weigh. Despite lower refinery activity, consultancies estimate China drew 25–28mb from crude stockpiles in July, the largest draw since 2021, suggesting actual refinery runs may have been higher than official data indicates. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr’27) Brent futures spreads are at$1.78/bbl and $8.79/bbl, respectively.

Strong selling this afternoon in Dated with Balmo Aug DFL trading down to lows of $0.90/bbl following a very weak window. Pre-window we saw strong Sep/Oct selling on screen with the DFL roll trading down to -$0.05/bbl with Sep DFL trading down to $1.70/bbl. In the physical window we saw strong cargo offers from numerous majors, trades and refiners across Midland, Forties, and Ekofisk with a US major pushing down the implied physical diff. We saw 1 cargo trade with a major lifting a Midland cargo offer. In the paper window 20-24 Aug CFD traded down to $0.20/bbl with majors and refiners selling, and 1-4 Sep CFD traded down to $2.05/bbl with a major and trade selling. We also saw 24-28 Aug 1-week getting hit down to $0.00/bbl.

A quiet afternoon in Brent/Dubai, as we saw Brent/Dubai trade lower on the day, despite producer buying of EFS and Chinese buying of Aug Brent Swap vs Sep Dubai. The Sep Brent/Dubai traded down from $4.70/bbl to $4.40/bbl. There was some selling of Sep and Oct Brent/Dubai by products. The Dubai spreads traded in line with Brent spreads, the boxes all trading rangebound. The Sep/Oct Dubai spread traded slightly weaker down from $3/bbl to $2.85/bbl, where we saw major buyside interest. The Sep/Oct box traded between -$0.92/bbl to -$0.78/bbl.

In VLSFO, the Sep Sing cracks traded a touch lower from this morning before finding support and consistently trading around $18.60/bbl for the afternoon. There was considerably less interest in Sep/Oct Sing this afternoon, it traded at $36.00/mt a dollar lower than its post morning window level of $37.00/mt.
Sep Euro 0.5 crack was offered this afternoon trading down from $7.20/bbl this morning to $6.40/bbl at the end of the window, it then sold off another 10c to $6.30/bbl post-window. Sep/Oct Euro also traded lower this afternoon from $22.50/mt to $21.50/mt. The Euro 0.5 E/W was therefore implied higher gaining around 2 dollars to $78.00/mt

In HSFO, Sep/Oct 380 traded up to $37.75/mt during the window before selling back down to $37.50/mt post window. Sep 380 crack sold off pre window this afternoon getting down to -$0.45/bbl, however it found real buying post window and traded back up to $0.10/bbl.
Sep/Oct Barges traded down 75c this afternoon and closed out the window trading at $17.00/mt, Sep Barge crack was rangebound trading between -$8.70/bbl and -$8.60/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads were scale back offered on higher ICE gasoil, with Sep/Oct trading from $6.30/bbl up to $6.50/bbl last. Front E/W sold off, with Sep trading from -$69/mt down to -$70.75/mt, hit on screen, while Dec was sell side from -$54.50/mt down to -$56/mt. Regrade buying in the front was taken out, with Sep hit from -$2.35/mt down to -$3.00/mt.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied throughout, with Sep/Dec from $167.50/mt up to $174/mt, while Oct cracks rallied to $75.80/bbl. Euro jet firmed into Q4, with Sep trading up to $70/bbl. Heating oil spreads firmed, while HOGOs weakened, with the Sep HOGO swap trading from 27.8c/gal down to 27.6c/gal.

This afternoon in gasoline, Sep MOC slightly better bid. RBBRs stronger this afternoon but prompt arbs trading lower on the back of prompt EBOB strength, seeing Sep EBOB crack trading up from $32.05/bbl to $32.95/bbl. Selling interest in Q2'27 arbs this afternoon, down from 33c/gal to 32.8c/gal with selling in Q1'27 EBOB crack at $15.10/bbl. Post Sing window, refiners lift Sep/Oct 92 from $5.10/bbl to $5.50/bbl on the back of tender news – where it finds a top here and goes offered on. Trade buying in Q1'27 E/W again at -$2/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha was softer overall, with NWE coming under pressure into the window. Sep NWE cracks traded up to -$4.15/-$4.20/bbl in the early afternoon before selling off post-window to around $4.50/bbl. Spreads also eased, with Sep/Oct moving down from $26/mt to $23/mt post-window, while Oct/Nov fell to $22.50/mt. E/W stayed supported, with Sep firming to $39.50/mt post-window, while Oct traded at $41.75/mt. MOPJ came off too, as spreads were better offered versus the morning, with Sep/Oct around $22.50/mt before trading down to $21/mt and closing near $21.50/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads were trading slightly lower than the morning’s levels, with Sep/Oct trading at $24/mt from $26/mt, and Oct/Nov softened $1 from $15/mt to $14/mt. Sep LST/FEI had better buy side interest again, trading up from -$320/mt to -$318/mt, before printing -$316/mt end window. Oct LST/FEI sold at -$290/mt, and Oct/Nov LST/FEI roll was getting bought at -$19/mt. An importer returned buying the C3ENT/C3FEI arb in Sep at -$303/mt, which is where it closed the afternoon. Q4 FEI/MOPJ was lifted at both -$75/mt and -$76/mt, and Dec was trading at -$69/mt before closing the afternoon $1 weaker. LST spreads had better buying this afternoon, seeing Sep/Oct trade at -0.75c/gal, down 0.125c/gal from last week’s close, and the 1H/2H'27 was lifted at 1.375c/gal. In butane, a very quiet afternoon, but there was a Jan/Feb C4 ENT buyer at 2.5c/gal.