Brent Eases As 60mb of Crude Oil Waits to Exit Persian Gulf

In the news, crude oil arrivals in Asia from the Middle East may increase in the coming weeks as over 60mb stuck in the Persian Gulf prepare to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and reach Asian markets, with the chokepoint reopening. Supply awaiting to exit the Strait of Hormuz might lead some refiners to boost processing rates or fill their commercial stock tanks, which have been depleted over the past three months. However, Asia seems adequately stocked for June and July, having sourced supplies from West Africa, South America, and North America to offset Middle Eastern deficits. According to Bloomberg sources, Asian refiners are well-equipped for the upcoming weeks. Elsewhere, Indian Oil Corp issued tenders on Thursday to charter vessels to transport LPG and oil from ports in the Strait of Hormuz, according to tender documents. These are the first tenders issued by IOC since the US and Iran signed an interim agreement to restore navigation through the waterway, and they involve chartering a VLGC, a Suezmax tanker, and a VLCC. IOC aims to lift LPG between 30 June and 04 July from ports such as Ras Laffan in Qatar, Mina Al Ahmadi in Kuwait, or Ruwais in the UAE. In other news, Ukraine has carried out a significant drone attack on Moscow, damaging the Russian capital's oil refinery for the second time this week. Kyiv portrayed the strike as a response to an attack that harmed a nearly 1,000-year-old monastery in the city. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated via a WhatsApp voice message to reporters, "We don't want this war, we never did, and everyone knows it, and our partners know it. But if Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn." Meanwhile, Russia launched missiles into Kyiv for the second time this week, following an assault that damaged the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra monastery and drew international condemnation, which Russia denied. Finally, aexit from me of writing, the front-month (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $0.23/bbl and $2.76/bbl, respectively.

Weaker this afternoon in Dated with strong screen selling on Jul down to -$0.17/bbl. We saw 29-3 Jul 1w sold down to -$0.05/bbl, 29-3 Jul CFD sold down to -$0.20/bbl and 6-10 Jul CFD sold down to -$0.20/bbl. In the physical window, we saw a major offering Forties and Brent cargos, as well as a refiner offering Midland, pushing the implied phys diff down to around 50c. Post window, 6-10 Jul vs Cal Jul was offered at flat. Further down the curve, we saw some Oct DFL buying and continued Cal'27 DFL buying,

VLSFO strength continued to strengthen this afternoon. Although liquidity dropped somewhat this afternoon, the Sing crack in July traded up to $13.50/bbl. Spreads were stronger off that back of that with Jul/Aug buying up to $19.00/mt. Euro continued to strengthen, however E/W selling became somewhat subdued resulting in some respite there. The Euro traded up to $7.25/bbl with Jul/Aug closing the day around $22.50/mt.

A weak afternoon in HSFO. We saw real selling step in on July/Aug'26 380 at $1.00/mt, Sep'26 E/W we saw real selling $9.50/mt, which put pressure on the front E/W implied $5.00/mt lower from this morning as the 380 cracks and flat price buying faded into the eve. Some axed buying on H1'26 Sing 380 flat price and Q1 180 flat price saw structure come under further pressure. In the Barge window cracks traded down 25c to -$7.90/bbl with good size MOC selling.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads drifted higher with ICE gasoil, with July/August trading up to $1.70/bbl. E/W and regrade were well supported in the deferred, with decent size Q1 and Q4 kero crack buying.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied into the end of the window, with July/August trading from $10.50/mt up to $11.50/mt, while August futures cracks also rallied from $36.25/mt up to $36.59/mt. European jet saw significant refiner crack selling across the curve, with banks and market makers on the buy side. Heating oil spreads were rangebound, while HOGOs sold off, with the July HOGO swap trading from 31.5c/gal down to 30.1c/gal.

This afternoon in gasoline, EBOB flat price traded end window at $863/mt with MOC better offered. RBBRs rallied and there was good arb selling in the front, as July traded between 34.20c/gal and 34.90c/gal. EBOB cracks rallied from $26.20/bbl to $26.60/bbl, with Q3 seeing scaleback selling up to $23.80/bbl. Spreads were supported as well, with Jul/Aug trading at $27/mt. E/W was a touch weaker, trading down from -$7.10/bbl to -$7.30/bbl, with 92 cracks scaleback offered from $19/bbl up to $19.60/bbl.

This afternoon in naphtha, MOC was better offered, with the July naphtha crack trading down from -$5.70/bbl to -$6.10/bbl by the end of the window. The Cal'27 crack saw selling interest from trade at -$9/bbl, getting hit down to -$9.15/bbl for decent size. Selling in Aug'26 E/W at $34.50/mt, with the July/Aug E/W box trading -$2.50/mt on legs. Buying in Jan/Feb MOPJ at $6/mt from a trade with some July MOPJ flat price buying on lower crude.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI continued to weaken with spreads selling off aggressively. Jul/Dec FEI traded down to $4/t, having opened the day at $21/mt. Aug/Dec also traded down to -$2.50/mt where it eventually settled post-window. LST/FEI flow for the day was driven by hedging, and the Jul arb traded up to -$186/mt, having been trading at -$208/mt during the morning window. Q4'26 LST/FEI was also lifted at -$170/mt, having closed at -$188/mt yesterday. Had some spread buying in LST out of Q3/4'26 at -1.5c/gal, before it strengthened to -1.375c/gal. LST flat price opened relatively strong which also contributed to LST/FEI strength. In Butane, spreads had better buyside interest, seeing Jul/Aug C4 ENT lifted at -0.625c/gal, and Sep/Oct at -1c/gal. C4/C3 buying in Q4 at 17.75c/gal.