Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Eases from Above $70/bbl
Trump weighs Iran strike options; Venezuela reopening airspace; Reliance and Valera ramp Russian and Venezuelan crude imports
The Apr’26 Brent futures contract briefly broke $70/bbl this afternoon, easing from $70.40/bbl at 14:50 GMT to $69.24/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
Notably, the Mar/Apr'26 Brent futures spread is at $1.21/bbl at the time of writing, though has printed highs of $1.43/bbl today ahead of Mar'26 Brent expiry on Friday. In the news, US President Trump is reportedly weighing options that involve targeted strikes against Iran’s security forces and leaders to motivate protesters to overthrow the government. According to Reuters sources, Trump aims to establish conditions for "regime change" following Iran's suppression of anti-government protests earlier this month. In response, a senior Israeli official said that even if the US were able to execute Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would "have a new leader that will replace him." In related news, the US President also announced plans to reopen Venezuela's air space following a discussion on Thursday with the country's acting president, Delcy Rodríguez. Additionally, he mentioned that major US oil companies will be visiting the South American country to explore potential projects. Elsewhere, an executive at India’s Reliance Industries will buy up to 150kb/d of Russian oil from February for its domestic market-focused refinery. It was reported earlier this month that Reliance was poised to receive sanctions-compliant Russian oil in February and March, after a month-long hiatus. Reliance last imported Russian crude in December following a one-month US concession that permitted it to phase out its dealings with the Russian oil producer Rosneft. In other news, Valera Energy has engaged with three authorised sellers of Venezuelan crude and will purchase barrels from all of them. Although the specific sellers were not identified, the refiner indicated that Venezuelan crude is expected to comprise a "pretty large part of its heavy crude diet" in February and March. The company also said that its capability to process Venezuelan crude is expected to be substantially more than 240kb/d. Finally, at the time of writing, the Apr/May and Apr/Oct spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.84/bbl, respectively.
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