Brent eases to $102/bbl. Riyadh airport remains disrupted

In the news, Chinese refiners have received government approval to export 3.52 million mt of refined products in October, down 18% m/m. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports are expected at 520 kt, 894 kt and 2,110 kt, as per JLC. 2026 CPP quotas now stand at 36.57 million mt, and approximately 84% have been consumed. Air traffic at Saudi Arabia's Jeddah Airport has been suspended, a day after air traffic was impacted in Riyadh, where attacks were heard at King Khalid International Airport. The Saudi Civil Aviation Authority has said that three Saudi nationals died in the two attacks at the airport. The Authority also reported that operations have now restarted at the airport. Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Italy's Energy Minister, has said that he will not attend a ministerial energy meeting scheduled in Riyadh for next week and will participate via videoconference. In Ukraine, President Zelensky claimed that the country's forces attacked Omsk and Ukhta oil refineries in Russia. Finally, the Dec/Jan’27 and Dec/Jun’27 Brent futures spreads are at $3.18/bbl and $12.18/bbl, respectively.

Very quiet start in Dated Brent, but dominated more by sell-side interest this morning. Nov'26 DFL traded down to $5.15/bbl with refiners, funds, trade houses and majors all on the sell side, as well as selling in the Nov'26 DTD dub earlier this morning. Also saw a trade offering Nov/Dec'26 and the DTD roll traded down to $4.02/bbl. Further down the curve, saw banks selling Q2'27 DFL.

This morning, Brent/Dubai continued to be very slow. The two flows were some buying of Nov and Dec Dated/Dubai, and selling of the Jan/Feb Brent/Dubai box. Other than that, it was only random bank flow, some buying of Dec Brent/Dubai EFS. The Nov Brent/Dubai traded between -$2.6/bbl and -$2.2/bbl, having rallied overnight. The Dubai spreads traded in a tight range, between $3.3/bbl and $3.6/bbl.

This morning in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw buying and selling, with Nov/Dec initially trading down to $3.00/bbl, then rallying to $4.20/bbl post-window. The gasoil E/W saw strong selling initially, with Nov E/W hitting -$148/mt and Q1'27 hitting -$102/mt, before finding support and Nov trading back up to -$135/mt. Regrade started off with selling in Nov and Dec, with Nov hitting down to -$0.40/bbl before normalising back to $1/bbl post window.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads opened lower, then firmed, with Nov/Dec trading to lows of $43/mt before rallying to $50/mt, while Nov cracks firmed to $84.10/bbl.

It was a firmer morning in Gasoline, led by EBOB, with the East recovering into the window. Nov'26 92 cracks dipped early before rallying into the end of the window, where real players sold at $24.25/bbl, with buying in Dec'26 cracks at $19.30/bbl in the window. 92 MOC was balanced to slightly offered. 92 Nov/Dec'26 eased from yesterday’s $7.40/bbl, with buying from $6.80/bbl to $7.00/bbl in the window, while Dec/Jan'27 held at $4.10/bbl, trading there at the end of the window. Nov'26 E/W weakened as EBOB rallied, with buying in Dec'26 E/W at -$3.75/bbl end of window and selling in Q1'27 E/W at -$4.50/bbl. In the West, Nov'26 EBOB cracks firmed from $28.75/bbl early to $29.80/bbl, despite selling from real players from $29.80/bbl to $29.70/bbl, and EBOB Nov/Dec'26 firmed with buying from $69.00/mt to $70.00/mt. Nov'26 arbs softened to 6.00c/gal despite stronger RBBRs, with buying in Dec'26 arbs from 16.10c/gal to 16.30c/gal while Jan'27 RBBRs rallied from $26.93/bbl to $27.91/bbl end of window.

This morning in naphtha was mixed, with MOC balanced and weaker Brent supporting cracks at the end of the window. MOPJ eased from last night’s stronger levels, with Q1'27 cracks down ro $0.75/bbl and the Nov/Feb'27 crack roll from $4.70/bbl to $4.65/bbl; spreads were softer, with Nov/Dec'26 at $36.25/mt versus $38.50/mt last night, while Dec/Jan'27 recovered from $30.00/mt to $30.75/mt. E/W remained well bid, with Nov'26 trading $79–$80.00/mt versus $80.00/mt last night and the Nov/Dec'26 & Dec/Jan'27 boxes firming to $2.25/mt & $11.50/mt respectively. NWE naphtha front cracks were choppy, with Nov'26 down from -$3.25/bbl last night to -$3.50/bbl before recovering to -$3.30/bbl; Q1'27 was -$5.90/bbl, the Nov/Dec'26 crack roll $1.30/bbl, and Q2/Q3'27 at $.75/bbl. Spreads were mixed versus last night, with Nov/Dec'26 at $34.75/mt and Dec/Jan'27 recovering from $18.25/mt to $19.50/mt.

A quiet morning in NGLs, Nov/Dec'26 FEI fell from $44.00/mt to $43.50/mt during the window before trading at $43.00/mt towards the end of the window. Dec/Dec'26 FEI was also weaker, trading at $224.00/mt down from $230.00/mt yesterday. Nov'26 FEI was trading at $906.00/mt to close the window.

FEI/CP was also illiquid, with Nov'26 FEI/CP down with crude at a $224.50/mt print versus $230.00/mt at yesterday’s US close. CP markets were illiquid, with Nov/Dec'26 CP trading once at $23.00/mt firm against yesterday’s level.

The Arb was stronger this morning with the Nov'26 LST/FEI at -$395.00/mt up from -$415.00/mt yesterday, again against a weaker crude. There was also some steepening in the Arb, with the Nov/Jan'27 Arb roll trading at -$58.50/mt, up around $3.00/mt from yesterday’s printed levels.

Trump refers to “productive discussions” with Iran and says he won’t attack it before the midterm elections next month. Bonds got a break, but yields remain near recent highs. 10-year yield at 5.25%, while 30-year at 5.62%. Even if they don’t bomb Iran (yet), the US added more Iran-linked ships and individuals to the OFAC sanctions list.

Marine Le Pen endorses a financial wealth tax in place of a tax on large real estate holdings. Details are still unclear. France needs to reassure investors, as the 10-year OAT yield reached 4.9%. At the end of June, it was near 3.5%... Meanwhile, the finance minister reportedly considers issuing more short-term debt.

US labour market still looks quite solid; initial jobless claims were 197k yesterday, below 200k expectations. Continuing jobless claims were higher than expected, however, at 1.716 million.

Japanese household spending slowed in August, rising only 0.1% m/m, lower than the 0.5% expected. This is the 9th consecutive month of y/y declines, particularly dragged down by education and clothing spending. Data today: Michigan consumer sentiment, Canada employment