Giovanni Simonetti
Junior Data Analyst, Flux
Brent Falls to $77.02/bbl
Brent falls to $77/bbl, Qatar halts LNG production, insurance companies cancel war risk coverage, Canada-US pipeline revival
The May’26 Brent futures contract initially rallied to $79.49/bbl at 12:45 GMT but started falling the rest of the afternoon, reaching $77.02/bbl at 16:48 GMT. Prices have since recovered slightly to $77.36/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
In the news, Qatar halted liquefied natural gas production after Iranian drone strikes hit facilities at the Ras Laffan complex and Mesaieed industrial zone, escalating regional tensions following Israeli and US attacks on Iran. Qatar supplies about 20% of global LNG, and QatarEnergy was expected to declare force majeure. The conflict disrupted energy infrastructure across the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan, and Israeli gas fields. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply. In other news, insurance companies are cancelling war risk coverage for vessels operating in the Gulf as Iran’s widening conflict disrupts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where around 20% of global oil and significant gas volumes transit. At least four tankers have been damaged, two seafarers killed and about 150 ships stranded after Iran reportedly closed navigation in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes. Major insurers, including Gard and Skuld, are withdrawing coverage from 5 March. Canadian company South Bow is proposing a revival of parts of the cancelled Keystone XL pipeline, potentially boosting Canada’s crude exports to the US by over 12% if approved by US President Trump. The plan, involving a new US route with partner Bridger Pipeline, would link to existing infrastructure but requires additional connections to major refining hubs. While some pipeline sections in Alberta are already built, the project faces regulatory hurdles, environmental opposition and political risk. Finally, the front-month May/Jun’26 and six-month May-Nov’26 spreads are at $1.53/bbl and $6.70/bbl respectively.
Brent falls to $77/bbl, Qatar halts LNG production, insurance companies cancel war risk coverage, Canada-US pipeline revival
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