Brent Firms Amid Reports of New US Strikes

In the news, a US official has told Faytuks Network that the US military has conducted precision strikes on targets in Bandar Abbas, calling the operation “defensive.” Little detail has been confirmed as of the time of writing. In other news, Russia has downgraded its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low and revised fuel export outlooks for 2026-2027, per a government draft forecast seen by Reuters, citing the war with Ukraine. The forecasts, due to be finalised at the end of September and used in the budget process, cut oil production estimates for 2026-2029 by 16-20Mmt versus the May outlook. In its base case, the government expects crude to fall 17.2Mmt this year to 494.2Mmt, its lowest since 2009. Elsewhere, Russia has doubled the size of its opaque-owned LNG "dark fleet" shipping gas from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project in just nine months, according to Bloomberg. The fleet has grown from an estimated 11 carriers in December 2025 to at least 20 now, including a second ice-class vessel capable of year-round Arctic transit. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec’26) and 6-month (Nov/May’27) Brent futures spreads are at $2.92/bbl and $12.60/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we saw strong selling of Sep/Oct'26 Dated pre-window with the Dated roll sold down to $2.03/bbl pre window. We saw some buying of 1-4 Sep'26 1w up to -$0.35/bbl and selling of 7-11 Sep 1w at -$0.10/bbl. In the physical window we saw a trade offering Midland and Forties cargos whilst a refiner also offered 2 Forties cargos, pushing down the implied physical diff. In the paper window trade houses sold 14-18 Sep CFD at $2.32/bbl and 21-25 Sep CFD at $2.10/bbl. We also saw buying 17-23 Sep vs 1-7 Oct at $1.10/bbl and selling Cal Oct'26 vs 15-21 Oct at $0.21/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai there was initially continued buying of Nov EFS by refiner, which saw us rally from $1.80/bbl to highs of around $2.50/bbl. However these highs brought out sell-side interest by tradehouse. We then traded more rangebound, back down to $1.90/bbl, despite buyside interest in the Dec Brent/Dubai as there was a US tender. The Dubai spreads all rallied, moving up with Brent flat price. The Oct/Nov Dubai spread up from $3.90/bbl to $4.40/bbl. The boxes all traded largely rangebound, there being some trade sellside interest around -$0.35/bbl, finishing the day at -$0.45/bbl.

This afternoon in VLSFO, Sing 0.5 spreads continued to strengthen this afternoon, Oct/Nov'26 traded up from $34.00/mt to $35.00/mt, Nov/Dec consistently traded at $21.00/mt throughout the afternoon. Oct Sing crack was fairly stable trading between $19.50/bbl and $19.85/bbl. Euro 0.5 spreads were rangebound with Oct/Nov'26 trading around $20.50/mt while Oct Euro crack encountered real selling trading down from $7.30/bbl to $6.80/bbl by window end and then it sold off a further 50c to $6.30/bbl post window.

In HSFO, 380 spreads were stable this afternoon with Oct/Nov trading between $15.25/mt and $16.00/mt, Oct 380 crack traded between -$4.50/bbl and -$4.70/bbl until after the window when it sold down to -$5.30/bbl. Barge spreads were slightly bid trading up to $12.00/mt while Oct crack traded down from -$10.75/bbl to -$11.20/bbl.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw continued selling, with Oct/Nov'26 trading from $6.50/bbl down to $6.15/bbl. Oct'26 E/W collapsed, hit from -$92.50/mt down to -$105.00/bbl into end window. Regrade remained well bid in the front, Oct'26 trading up to -$2.25/bbl, while the Oct/Nov'26 regrade roll went better bid up to -$2.70/bbl last.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied throughout the afternoon, with Sep/Dec'26 trading from $195.00/mt up to $211.50/mt, while Nov'26 cracks strengthened to $78.00/bbl. European jet diffs moved stronger, with Oct'26 up to $80.00/mt and Q4'26 at $91.50/mt.

This afternoon in gasoline, MOC a touch better offered. EBOB sees better selling this afternoon with the Oct'26 EBOB crack continue to price lower from this morning – trading $29.50/bbl end of window with selling in Oct/Nov'26 down to $74/mt. Arbs stronger across the afternoon with trade houses scale back selling of Q2'27 arb at 31.75c/gal, 32 and 32.50c/gal – seeing all sell-side interest getting absorbed.

This afternoon in naphtha had a quiet MOC after the stronger morning, with a mix of buyers and sellers. MOPJ was illiquid across the board post-window, though spreads were firmer versus the morning, with Oct/Nov'26 moving up from around $28.00/mt to $29.00/mt, Nov/Dec'26 around $27.25/mt and Jan/Feb'27 around $19.25/mt, while Mar'27 cracks traded earlier at -$1.55/bbl. There was a lack of outright E/W interest in the front, as Oct'26 eased to $52.00/mt, while Nov'26 held around $50.75/mt and Q1'27 was firm at $40.00/mt. NWE naphtha was mixed on prompt cracks through the afternoon, with Oct'26 cracks trading around -$3.45/bbl to -$3.30/bbl, but the backend was well bid, with Q4'26 around -$3.90/bbl, Q1'27 improving to around -$5.05/bbl, and Cal'28 trading at -$8.85/mt after seeing resistance at $-$9.00/mt for the past week. Spreads firmed as well, with Sep/Oct'26 up to $22.00/mt post-window, Oct/Nov'26 moving from $25.50/mt to $28.00/mt and Oct/Dec'26 around $53.50/mt.

This afternoon in NGLs, FEI continued to soften with flat price weaker, and spreads also came off a touch. Oct/Nov'26 FEI sold down to $27.00/mt, before some buying returned towards end window at $28.00/mt. Dec/Jan'27 was also down on the afternoon, trading at $17.00/mt, compared to the morning’s trading level of $18.50/mt. As FEI flat price weakened, LST/FEI stepped up, seeing Oct'26 trade up to -$361.50/mt, and Q1'27 at -$269.00/mt. Importer buying of the C3 ENT/FEI returned in Oct'26, trading at -$372.00/mt for just shy of full cargo size, and ENT/NWE was lifted -$200.00/mt. Q4'26 pronap saw buying at -$164.00/mt, before weakening to -$169.00/mt end window, and Q1'27 FEI/MOPJ was sold at -$61.00/mt. Quiet afternoon in US curves today. LST had some deferred spread interest with Q1/2'27 trading 3.875c/gal, and Q2/3'27 was lifted at 0.25c/gal. In butane, Oct'26 C4 ENT flat price was trading range-bound from 114.25c/gal to 114.50c/gal.