Brent meets resistance above $90/bbl despite attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure

In the news this afternoon, a fire broke out at Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility, with satellite imagery detecting significant fire and heavy smoke at the facility. Abqaiq is the world’s largest crude oil stabilisation plant, processing 5-7% of global oil supply. Saudi Arabia says it intercepted several drones from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, targeting its oil infrastructure in the Eastern Region and Riyadh. Meanwhile, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said, in a post on X, that several sensitive crude oil supply and transport sites "from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu" were struck using several drones, in what he described as a response to Saudi "drones breaching Yemeni airspace." In other news, US SPR crude inventories fell by 3.7 mb w/w to 307.7 mb in the week ending 24 Jul, its lowest since the early 1980s. Elsewhere, Kpler data shows that global seaborne crude imports from Russia are on track for a record high in July, with India still its largest buyer while China and Turkey also absorb significant volumes. Finally, at the time of writing, the Sep/Oct'26 and Sep/Mar'27 Brent futures spreads stand at $3.10/bbl and $10.64/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated Brent, we saw Aug DFL find some support following a sell-off this morning before trading lower post-window down to $2.52/bbl. We saw selling of 24-28 3w at $2.1/bbl, and pre-window we saw selling of prompt structure with 27-29 Jul vs 3-5 Aug sold at $0.3/bbl and 27-28 Jul vs 3-4 Aug also sold at $0.30/bbl. In the window, a British major offered three Brent cargos and an Ekofisk cargo, pushing the implied diff down to around $1.365/bbl (according to The Officials). In the paper window, we saw 1 CFD trade with 17-21 Aug CFD trading $2.50/bbl between two trade houses. Post window, we saw selling of Bal-week 1w at $0.20/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai, we initially sold off from the highs, with selling by Chinese players in Aug and Sep Brent/Dubai as well as cross-month and Aug Dated vs Sep Dubai. There was buying of Sep and Oct EFS by a producer, but this was aggressively taken out by market makers. Once the selling was taken out, we moved higher; the Aug Brent/Dubai up from $7.40/bbl to $8.10/bbl. There was consistent selling of the Aug/Sep Dubai spread every time we moved above $1.20/bbl. The boxes were quiet OTC, with only the Aug/Sep box being sold around $0.97/bbl before rallying to $1.25/bbl.

A fairly quiet afternoon on VLSFO. Sing 0.5 was a touch stronger, Aug Sing crack traded up to $21.10/bbl while Aug/Sep Sing finished the day around $42.00/mt. 0.5 E/W was a touch stronger, resulting in the Euro crack trading down in the window to $7.65/bbl before finishing the day where it opened the afternoon around $8.00/bbl. Aug/Sep Euro traded down to $29.00/mt.

In HSFO, Chinese arbers were aggressively buying 380 cracks earlier in the afternoon. When that buying got taken out, the 380 crack came off a fair bit, trading down to -$4.00/bbl by the close of day. There was a fair amount of 380 E/W selling, which put pressure on the 380 cracks and spreads. The Aug 380 E/W sold down to $31.50/mt while Aug/Sep 380 got as low as $15.00/mt. 3.5% barges remained fairly resolute, with the barge crack closing around -$8.90/bbl while Aug/Sep barges traded up to $9.75/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw scale back selling in the front, with Aug/Sep trading from $8.00/bbl up to $8.45/bbl on higher ICE gasoil. The gasoil E/W was bid in Q1 at -$51/mt, while the front swung around, Aug trading from -$55 up to -$49/mt before coming back to -$52/mt last. Regrade was sell-side in the front, Aug at -$2.90/bbl, while Sep traded at $1.60/bbl.

ICE gasoil spreads rallied throughout the afternoon, with Sep/Dec rallying from $170 to $185/mt, while the front crack reached $68.30/bbl. European jet diffs weakened overall, Q4 falling $5 down to $125.00/mt. Heating oil spreads moved up slightly, while HOGOs weakened, the Aug HOGO swap from 27.30c/gal down to 25.30c/gal.

This afternoon, gasoline was stronger. RBBRs rallied, pushing Aug'26 TA arbs up from 26c/gal to 27.80c/gal, with Q4'26 trading at 24c/gal. EBOB cracks were supported, with Aug'26 firming from $35/bbl to $36.15/bbl, with Q4'26 trading up to $17.60/bbl on stronger Brent spreads. Spreads were mixed but mostly moved higher with Brent, though Aug/Sep remained balanced at $67.50/mt. EBOB strength pushed the gasoline E/W lower, with Sep'26 trading down to -$8.10/bbl and Aug 92 cracks were valued at $26.65/bbl during the window.

This afternoon in Naphtha, Europe MOC was better offered, with the NWE naphtha crack getting sold down from -$0.50/bbl to -$0.90/bbl. The crack found some support post-window, trailing up to -$0.70/bbl post-window, but continued to weaken post-window on the back of escalatory news. The Q4 E/W was better bid this afternoon, with buying up to $37.75/mt in Q4, with some aggressive buying in Nov EmW at $38.50/mt.

A quiet afternoon in NGLs across the curves. Aug LST/FEI traded again at the morning level of -$326/mt, before strengthening slightly to close at -$324/mt. There was buying of the Aug/Sep LST/FEI roll at -$43/mt, the same level as Friday’s close. In the deferred, last week’s Q4 LST/FEI buying returned today at -$243/mt, before strengthening to close at -$239/mt. Aug/Sep CP interest, trading at $27/mt, and Sep/Dec was sold at $32/mt. Had some LST spread buying in the front, with Aug/Sep trading at -0.875c/gal and Sep/Oct lifted at -1c/gal. In the deferred, there was some Q1 27/ Q3 27 buying at 5.875c/gal. In Butane, it was a muted afternoon, but there was some mixed interest in Aug/Sep C4 ENT that traded up from flat to 0.125c/gal.