Mita Chaturvedi
Research Associate, Flux
Brent remains supported above $70/bbl
Key drivers of this market remain ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, alongside the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down....
Published: February 23, 2026
Written by:
Mita Chaturvedi
4 page report
The Apr’26 Brent futures contract briefly gapped down early this morning, although it continues to meet support at $70/bbl and now stands at $71.33/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing).
Key drivers of this market remain ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, with another round of Iranian nuclear talks set on Thursday, alongside the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Donald Trump's import tariffs. President Trump said over the weekend that he would raise a temporary tariff of 10% to 15% on US imports from all countries, the maximum level allowed under an untested law known as Section 122, which allows these tariffs without congressional approval for up to 150 days. No US president has previously invoked Section 122, raising concerns that its use could lead to further legal challenges. Meanwhile, looking at positioning, ICE COT data for the week ending 17 Feb showed that money managers were risk-off in Brent futures, trimming their long and short positions by 0.6% and 1.4%, respectively, highlighting the market's indecision amid geopolitical uncertainty. This shift raised the speculative long-to-short ratio slightly to 3:1, its highest level since the week ending 02 Sep 2025, though still in the 34th percentile for all weeks since 2013. Meanwhile, speculative COT positioning in WTI turned bearish in the week ending 17 Feb, with net positions declining by 15 mb, pressuring the long:short ratio down from 1.70:1.00 to 1.53:1.00 w/w. This marked the first decline in net crude positioning in nine weeks. In other news, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI crude futures forecast for Q4 2026 by $6 to $60/bbl and $56/bbl, respectively, citing lower OECD stocks, though it maintains its view of no Iran-related supply disruption and continues to expect a surplus of oil. Finally, at the time of writing, the Apr/May'26 and Apr/Oct'26 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $3.26/bbl.
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