Donna Dong
Research Analyst, Flux
Brent Rises as Houthis Claim Responsibility for Jazan Refinery Attack
Houthis hit Saudi refinery; Russian refinery disrupted, Libya pipeline leak contained. OPEC output rises as Gulf supply recovers.
The Oct’26 Brent futures contract has strengthened this afternoon, from $84.87/bbl at 14:19 BST to $86.65/bbl at 17:22 BST (time of writing).
Brent Futures Flat Price
In the news, the Houthis have claimed responsibility for an attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery on Sunday, two days after Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan. Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry said a fire broke out at the Jazan refinery but was quickly extinguished. The Houthis claimed that they used a drone to target the 400kb/d refinery, having previously struck Saudi sites in Jazan and Yanbu. Separately, the group claimed missile and drone attacks on the Yemeni port of Mocha, near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Any disruption to the chokepoint would further limit Saudi Arabia’s alternative export route following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Elsewhere, a fire at Russia’s Ilsky refinery in the southern Krasnodar region has been extinguished after debris from a Ukrainian drone reportedly caused the blaze, according to local authorities. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces also targeted the Ilsky and Syzran refineries overnight, with fires reported at both. The Ilsky refinery has a capacity of over 6Mmt/year, while Syzran can process around 8.5Mmt/year. In Libya, Waha Oil Company has said that it contained a leak on the Zaqout-Sidra pipeline within 24 hours of detecting it during a routine inspection, with pumping resumed at 4:00 a.m. after the leak was fully brought under control. Waha typically produces around 400kb/d under normal operating conditions, according to a Reuters source. In other news, OPEC output rose by 1.17mb/d m/m to 19.85mb/d in July, as Gulf members restored supplies disrupted by the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The increase extends the recovery from May, when OPEC output fell to its lowest level since at least 2000. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $1.70/bbl and $7.80/bbl, respectively.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Fuel Oil
It was a very quiet afternoon in VLSFO, Euro cracks were bid by a European tradehouse in the window trading up to $7.30/bbl, this implied the E/W slightly lower closing around $75.00/mt. MOC was better offered while spreads were largely unspoken, the Sing crack closed at $19.20/bbl.
HSFO was equally as quiet, MOC was better offered, the 380 crack traded up from -$3.80/bbl to -$3.70/bbl in the window and Sep/Oct'26 380 traded slightly higher up to $25.50/mt. The barge crack traded at -$10.00/bbl during the window and Sep/Oct'26 barge traded down to $12.00/mt. E/W was implied a dollar higher closing at $40.00/mt.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Distillates
This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw buying in bal, trading up to $5.10/bbl, while front E/W sold off from -$66.75/mt down to -$69.00/mt. Kero spreads were offered in Sep/Dec'26, while front regrade remained bid at -$0.70/bbl.
Prompt ICE gasoil spreads rallied throughout the afternoon, with Aug/Sep'26 trading from $60.00/mt up to $92.00/mt, while Oct'26 cracks ripped to $70.00/bbl. European jet diffs firmed in the front on crack buying, trading from $74.00/bbl up to $77.00/bbl. Both heating oil spreads and HOGOs rallied, with the Sep'26 HOGO swap from 27.50c/gal up to 28.30c/gal.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
Gasoline
It was a strong afternoon on gasoline. Oct'26 RBBRs rallied over a dollar, but Sep'26 arbs remained range-bound around 7.50c/gal. EBOB cracks were scaleback offered by tradehouses in Sep'26 as they rallied from $31.00/bbl to $31.80/bbl, with Q3'27 trading up to $15.95/bbl. Spreads also firmed on stronger RBBRs and crude, with Sep/Oct'26 trading up from $86.00/mt to $87.25/mt. E/W was a touch stronger, trading at -$13.20/bbl where it found sellside interest from a refiner.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
NGLs
This afternoon in NGLs, FEI spreads had some good buyside interest, seeing Sep/Oct trade at $23.50/mt, down from today’s opening level of $25/mt, and Dec/Dec was trading $87/mt before strengthening to close at $92.50/mt. There was also some Nov/Dec FEI buying at $11.50/mt. FEI/MOPJs had scaleback buying in Q4'26 from -$70/mt to -$76/mt, and Q1'27 had buying at -$71/mt down to -$76/mt. Prompt and deferred interest in LST/FEI with Sep trading at -$302/mt and Cal'27 getting lifted at -$181/mt and -$183/mt. Saw deferred buying of LST spreads today, with Q1/2'27 trading at 4.25c/gal, and Dec/Dec lifted at 2.5c/gal. In butane, the Balmo Aug/Sep was sold at 0.875c/gal, and Sep/Dec was trading at flat. Sep C4/C3 LST traded up to 30.5c/gal having opened the day at 29.75c/gal.
Prices accurate at the close of the window on the date of publication. For live prices, see Flux Terminal or the Flux CFDs Trading Platform.
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