Brent Strengthens on New US Aircraft Carrier Headed to Middle East

In the news, the US has reportedly sent a new aircraft carrier to the Middle East, as Iran tensions continue. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco is handling September crude allocations to Asian term customers on an ad hoc basis, amid ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Four Chinese buyers said they had yet to receive their September allocations, while other Asian buyers are discussing lifting volumes individually with Aramco. Even where full allocations have been issued, some buyers are treating them as conditional, with uncertainty over vessel availability and their ability to physically lift the crude, as per Reuters. In Russia, seaborne oil product exports fell 33% m/m in July to 3.93Mmt, down 55% y/y, as Ukrainian drone strikes have forced unplanned refinery maintenance and reduced fuel production. Baltic exports fell 16% m/m to 1.97Mmt, while Black Sea and Azov Sea shipments dropped 49% to 1.25Mmt. Arctic exports fell sharply by 85% to just 44kt, while Far East loadings declined 16% to 664kt. In India, Petronet LNG still has no confirmed September LNG supply plan from Qatar, as Doha continues to review its force majeure on a month-to-month basis. Qatar declared force majeure in March after Iran struck two of its 14 LNG trains, while disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have further complicated exports. Petronet is therefore turning to alternative suppliers, including Oman, the U.S., Nigeria and Angola, to cover the shortfall. In Russia, the Orsk refinery has shut down completely after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged key infrastructure, with repairs potentially taking up to six months due to sanctions-related equipment constraints, according to the regional governor. Finally, as of the time of writing, the front-month (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr’27) Brent futures spreads are at$1.96/bbl and $8.66/bbl, respectively.

This afternoon in Dated we saw strong Balmo Aug'26 DFL buying pre-window with $3.00/bbl getting lifted on screen whilst there was also selling of $24.00/bbl-28 Aug'26 DFL down to $2.55/bbl and selling of $24.00/bbl-28 Aug'26 vs Nov'26 ICE Brent futures. In the physical window we saw a trade bidding a Midland cargo however they didn’t aggress. Another major offered 2 Midland cargos, pushing down the implied diff, with 1 being lifted by a major. In the paper window 24-28 CFD got hit down to $1.90/bbl and $1.00/bbl-4 Sep'26 CFD traded down to $3.35/bbl. Post window we saw some buying of Sep/Oct'26 DTD and Oct/Nov'26 DTD whilst 17-21 Aug'26 3-week was lifted at $1.58/bbl and $1.00/bbl-4 Sep'26 3w was bought at $1.85/bbl.

This afternoon in Brent/Dubai we traded range-bound, initially coming back off, the Sep'26 Brent/Dubai trading down from $5.60/bbl to $5.20/bbl, but then we saw major come in to buy Oct'26 Brent/Dubai in size, which saw Brent/Dubai rally back up towards the highs. There was some Chinese buying of bal Aug'26 Brent/Dubai around $2.00/bbl. The Dubai spreads rebounded slightly, the Sep/Oct'26 spread bouncing from $2.00/bbl to $2.20/bbl, the Sep/Oct'26 box trading in a large range between -$0.35/bbl to -$0.13/bbl. There was also some trade buying of Sep/Dec'26 box around $0.50/bbl.

In VLSFO, the Sep'26 Sing 0.5 crack traded up to $19.05/bbl this afternoon before selling off down to $18.85/bbl during the window. Sep/Oct'26 strength continued from this morning trading up to $36.00/mt during the window. Euro 0.5 crack traded lower this afternoon from $7.80/bbl in the early afternoon to $7.50/bbl. Sep/Oct'26 Euro also traded slightly lower down to $24.75/mt

In HSFO, Sep'26 380 crack continued to strengthen into the afternoon on the back of real buying trading up to -$2.10/bbl while Sep/Oct'26 380 traded between $32/$50.00/mt and $33.00/mt. Barge crack marginally strengthened to -$10.15/bbl and then to -$10.05/bbl post-window. Sep/Oct'26 barges were quieter this afternoon trading around $14.50/mt. 380 e/w traded up to $50.75/mt.

This afternoon in distillates, Sing gasoil spreads saw mixed interest, with Oct/Nov'26 buying from $6.30/bbl up to $6.50/bbl, while Dec/Jan'27 was well offered at $4.40/bbl. Front E/W was well bid, trading higher to -$68.00/mt, while Jan'27 saw decent selling at -$59.00/mt. Kero spreads were well offered in Sep/Oct'26, pushing regrade down to -$2.20/bbl Sep'26 last.

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads sold off initially before rallying into the end window, with Sep/Dec'26 trading from $167.50/mt down to $157.50/mt before recovering to $167.50/mt last. European jet diffs strengthened slightly in the front, moving from $67.00/mt up to $70.00/mt in Sep'26. Both heating oil spreads and HOGOs were range-bound, Sep'26 HOGO swap trading around 29.10c/gal.

This afternoon in gasoline, mixed interest in EBOB MOC with real buyers and sellers of Sep'26. Sep'26 E/W stronger with interest in Q4'26 flipping from trade buying at -4 to real interest sellside at -$4.00/bbl. Selling in Q3'27 EBOB crack from banks with Jan'27+Feb'27 arbs continuing to see sell side interest, with Q4'26 arb selling at 20.9/gal.

This afternoon in naphtha was fairly mixed after the morning recovery, with MOC better offered but cracks bid up pre-window before easing slightly throughout. NWE naphtha was better supported on cracks than spreads, with Sep'26 cracks firming to -$5.10/bbl in the window before softening to -$5.30/bbl on the crude rally, while Sep/Oct'26 softened from around $20.00/mt to $18.50/mt before recovering to $20.50/mt. MOPJ was relatively illiquid, with Sep'26 cracks trading between -$1.60/bbl and -$1.40/bbl, while Sep/Oct'26 was still around $19.00/mt–$20.00/mt. E/W was a touch firmer, with Sep'26 moving from around $34.00/mt this morning to $35.00/mt post-window.

This afternoon in NGLs, LST/FEI came off down the curve as FEI flat price was stronger. Sep'26 traded at -$307.00/mt towards the end of the afternoon, having closed the morning at $298.00/mt. The Nov'26 LST/FEI also sold off from-$260.00/mt to -$265.00/mt. There was some deferred FEI spread interest with May/Jun'27 28 getting sold at $3.00/mt. Sep'26 FEICP traded again at $100.00/mt, and there was a Sep'26 ENT/CP buyer at -$212.00/mt. Sep'26 ENT/LST opened the afternoon trading at -2.375c/gal, before softening to close at -2.50c/gal. In butane, C4/C3 was stronger on the day as flat price was trading up, and Sep'26 opened at 32.00c/gal, before closing to print at 34.375c/gal. There was also a Butane arb C4ENT/C4CP buyer at -$121.00/mt, and the C4ENT/MOPJ was bought at -$249.00/mt, before closing the afternoon at -$251.00/mt.